TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ladislav Moravec vs Frantisek Balcar 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119113119––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Moravec above · Frantisek Balcar below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Ladislav Moravec at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Moravec 3–2 Frantisek Balcar Frantisek Balcar has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Moravec beat Balcar 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:21What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1440 vs Balcar 1515
Balcar
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Balcar 60%
Balcar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 40% vs Balcar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +1 · Balcar +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balcar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.60 / Balcar 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13217042
Moravec1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 24 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it68% 19 of 28
Balcar2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 40 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMoravec3wins
AwayBalcar2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMoravec leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec66.7%2 of 3
AwayBalcarn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec3Balcar2n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
S2Moravec3Balcar2n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
S3Moravec4Balcar1n = 5Moravec took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMoravecBalcarM − BBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.236.8+1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecBalcarBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 279 vs 121 / 24341.9%49.8%117 / 279 vs 121 / 243Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.60/Balcar 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 29 · 10:55L. Moravec529111110113F. Balcar4911891292
WSep 1 · 14:20L. Moravec331111113F. Balcar258980
LJun 2 · 11:25L. Moravec4611613972F. Balcar506111111113
WApr 21 · 13:30L. Moravec341111123F. Balcar2257100
LApr 21 · 10:20L. Moravec2614660F. Balcar381611113
L. Moravec10
WSep 29 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.83119551L. Moravec1.8351111113LSep 29 · 12:25L. Moravec1.73691891F. Marat2.00111116113WSep 29 · 10:55F. Balcar2.2011891292L. Moravec1.619111110113LSep 24 · 14:13F. Marat2.10891113113L. Moravec1.67111181152LSep 24 · 12:55L. Moravec1.448612101F. Marat2.63111110123WSep 24 · 11:55L. Moravec1.5311911113R. Jamrich2.38411851LSep 24 · 10:55L. Moravec2.6310490A. Kral1.441211113LSep 22 · 14:05L. Moravec2.50991161A. Kral1.5011118113LSep 22 · 12:55L. Moravec1.6171210151F. Marat2.20111012173WSep 22 · 11:55L. Moravec2.75121011113A. Kral1.401012751
F. Balcar10
WSep 29 · 12:55F. Balcar1.83101111113F. Marat1.83127881WSep 29 · 11:55F. Balcar1.7311117113P. Chlumsky2.00471171LSep 29 · 10:55F. Balcar2.2011891292L. Moravec1.619111110113WSep 23 · 09:58R. Jamrich2.009121112122F. Balcar1.731110914143LSep 23 · 08:55F. Balcar1.501112611102R. Jamrich2.509101113123LSep 23 · 07:55F. Balcar1.91612101152M. Filipek1.801110127113LSep 23 · 06:55F. Balcar2.208118101A. Kral1.6111811123LSep 22 · 10:10R. Muller1.92712911113F. Balcar1.78111011892LSep 22 · 09:25B. Budik1.874111319113F. Balcar1.83116151752WSep 22 · 08:25F. Balcar1.91612811133M. Filipek1.801110119112
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.