TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Frantisek Balcar vs Filip Marat 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012117118118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Balcar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Balcar above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Frantisek Balcar at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Balcar 7–5 Filip Marat Filip Marat has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:49What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marat
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Balcar
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balcar 1515 vs Marat 1407
Balcar
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcar 40% vs Marat 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcar 30% vs Marat 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcar +1 · Marat +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Balcar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marat form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcar 1.83 / Marat 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Balcar)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13213884
Balcar1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Marat1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalcar6wins
AwayMarat4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBalcar leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalcar100%5 of 5
AwayMarat80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balcar5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S2Balcar4Marat6n = 10Marat took 6 of 10
S3Balcar6Marat4n = 10Balcar took 6 of 10
S4Balcar4Marat2n = 6Balcar took 4 of 6
S5Balcar2Marat1n = 3Balcar took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalcarMaratB − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.135.9+2.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcarMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 243 vs 236 / 52549.8%45%121 / 243 vs 236 / 525Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BalcarBalcar 1.83/Marat 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Balcar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Balcar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 12:55F. Balcar43101111113F. Marat35127881
WJul 22 · 10:55F. Balcar48118117113F. Marat4041161182
WJul 21 · 12:20F. Balcar46114911113F. Marat4251111692
LJul 20 · 11:55F. Balcar216780F. Marat331111113
WJul 17 · 09:25F. Balcar361111143F. Marat2237120
LJun 17 · 10:55F. Balcar541311812102F. Marat571591110123
LJun 14 · 12:55F. Balcar369611101F. Marat3911115123
LJun 11 · 12:55F. Balcar215970F. Marat331111113
WJun 2 · 14:30F. Balcar331111113F. Marat226880
WJun 2 · 13:25F. Balcar43111011113F. Marat36912961
F. Balcar10
WSep 29 · 11:55F. Balcar1.7311117113P. Chlumsky2.00471171LSep 29 · 10:55F. Balcar2.2011891292L. Moravec1.619111110113WSep 23 · 09:58R. Jamrich2.009121112122F. Balcar1.731110914143LSep 23 · 08:55F. Balcar1.501112611102R. Jamrich2.509101113123LSep 23 · 07:55F. Balcar1.91612101152M. Filipek1.801110127113LSep 23 · 06:55F. Balcar2.208118101A. Kral1.6111811123LSep 22 · 10:10R. Muller1.92712911113F. Balcar1.78111011892LSep 22 · 09:25B. Budik1.874111319113F. Balcar1.83116151752WSep 22 · 08:25F. Balcar1.91612811133M. Filipek1.801110119112LSep 22 · 06:55R. Muller2.251111133F. Balcar1.5787110
F. Marat10
WSep 29 · 12:25L. Moravec1.73691891F. Marat2.00111116113LSep 29 · 11:25F. Marat2.50712951P. Chlumsky1.50111011113LSep 29 · 10:00F. Marat1.836151091J. Srnka1.83111312113LSep 29 · 09:25F. Marat1.838740A. Kral1.831111113WSep 29 · 07:55J. Srnka2.0011117672F. Marat1.73791111113LSep 29 · 07:25M. Filipek2.101111113F. Marat1.673680WSep 24 · 14:13F. Marat2.10891113113L. Moravec1.67111181152WSep 24 · 12:55L. Moravec1.448612101F. Marat2.63111110123LSep 24 · 12:25A. Kral1.8381111113F. Marat1.83118861LSep 24 · 11:25F. Marat1.83117381R. Jamrich1.8391111113
Upcoming Matches
F. Balcar
F. Marat
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