TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Brandtl Jr vs Lukas Jirka 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9113111012––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:44 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Jirka to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Lukas Jirka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 56 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Lukas Jirka at 55.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 2–3 Lukas Jirka Ales Brandtl Jr has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:44What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jirka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brandtl Jr 1499 vs Jirka 1524
Jirka
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brandtl Jr 40% vs Jirka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brandtl Jr 60% vs Jirka 30%
Brandtl Jr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brandtl Jr -2 · Jirka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Jirka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirka form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrandtl Jr 2.10 / Jirka 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Jirka)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13215751
Brandtl Jr2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back29% 32 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back12% 8 of 65
Jirka1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 14 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBrandtl Jr2wins
AwayJirka3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderJirka leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrandtl Jrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJirka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brandtl Jr2Jirka3n = 5Jirka took 3 of 5
S2Brandtl Jr3Jirka2n = 5Brandtl Jr took 3 of 5
S3Brandtl Jr1Jirka4n = 5Jirka took 4 of 5
S4Brandtl Jr2Jirka2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricBrandtl JrJirkaB − JBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.445.0−7.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrandtl JrJirkaBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 543 vs 94 / 18547.3%50.8%257 / 543 vs 94 / 185Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JirkaBrandtl Jr 2.10/Jirka 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Jirka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jirka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 29 · 15:50A. Brandtl Jr2293100L. Jirka341111123
WNov 16 · 12:20A. Brandtl Jr54161386113L. Jirka551411111182
LNov 13 · 16:20A. Brandtl Jr30515641L. Jirka46111311113
WNov 8 · 22:25A. Brandtl Jr4212712113L. Jirka4010111091
LNov 8 · 19:20A. Brandtl Jr3951151172L. Jirka50119118113
A. Brandtl Jr10
LSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.361111113A. Brandtl Jr3.008470LSep 29 · 14:20A. Krcil2.00731111113A. Brandtl Jr1.7311117792LSep 28 · 09:55A. Brandtl Jr1.616121151Z. Muhlhauser2.2011146113WSep 28 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.839450A. Brandtl Jr1.831111113WSep 28 · 08:25A. Brandtl Jr3.00115611113L. Rek1.3661111992LSep 28 · 06:55T. Cerveny Jr1.8311139113A. Brandtl Jr1.838111191WSep 26 · 10:30A. Brandtl Jr1.83128511113T. Cerveny Jr1.83101111962WSep 26 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.33111881A. Brandtl Jr3.2581111113WSep 26 · 08:25A. Brandtl Jr1.83911911123T. Cerveny Jr1.83116115102LSep 23 · 17:50A. Brandtl Jr1.459880J. Vintr2.601111113
L. Jirka10
LSep 29 · 16:20A. Krcil1.8091111113L. Jirka1.91118681WSep 29 · 14:50L. Jirka2.10111110113D. Zelezny1.67751281LSep 13 · 13:55L. Jirka2.07118641D. Zelezny1.6781111113LSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka2.20111156123D. Zelezny1.61671111102LSep 13 · 10:55L. Jirka1.7388191152L. Rek2.001111173113LSep 8 · 21:20L. Jirka1.80851191B. Budik1.9111118113LSep 8 · 20:20T. Rein3.0081114123L. Jirka1.3611312101LSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:50L. Jirka1.861012911113B. Budik1.80121011852
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