TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Ulrych vs Jaroslav Strnad 1964 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
110110110––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1964 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Ulrych above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below
Set 1 · 11-0
Set 2 · 11-0
Set 3 · 11-0
Point 33 set 3, 11-0 · our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1964 at 54.0%
33 points played in total.
H2H Martin Ulrych 1–5 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Martin Ulrych has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Strnad beat Ulrych 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Strnad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Strnad
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ulrych 1426 vs Strnad 1420
Ulrych
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ulrych 80% vs Strnad 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ulrych 50% vs Strnad 70%
Strnad
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ulrych +3 · Strnad -1
Ulrych
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Strnad) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUlrych 1.85 / Strnad 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strnad)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13214743
Ulrych1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Strnad1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeUlrych1wins
AwayStrnad5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderStrnad leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUlrychn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStrnad100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ulrych2Strnad4n = 6Strnad took 4 of 6
S2Ulrych2Strnad4n = 6Strnad took 4 of 6
S3Ulrych2Strnad4n = 6Strnad took 4 of 6
S4Ulrych3Strnad2n = 5Ulrych took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricUlrychStrnadU − SBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match35.340.5−5.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUlrychStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 169 vs 556 / 112959.8%49.3%101 / 169 vs 556 / 1129Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadUlrych 1.85/Strnad 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ulrych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 28 · 22:30M. Ulrych4512951182J. Strnad501011117113
WSep 6 · 00:30M. Ulrych4211911113J. Strnad28811451
LMay 28 · 00:00M. Ulrych4386111172J. Strnad47111168113
LMay 16 · 22:30M. Ulrych37811991J. Strnad4211911113
LApr 13 · 13:30M. Ulrych227690J. Strnad331111113
LApr 13 · 12:30M. Ulrych23412341J. Strnad43111011113
M. Ulrych10
WSep 29 · 02:00M. Ulrych1.331112113V. Hruska Sr3.2551050WSep 29 · 01:00M. Ulrych1.831111113T. Regner1.835650WSep 29 · 00:00J. Briska1.8311711792M. Ulrych1.83911911113LSep 28 · 22:30J. Strnad1.911011117113M. Ulrych1.8012951182WSep 13 · 17:00L. Havel1.639670M. Ulrych2.131111113LSep 13 · 16:00J. Novotny1.91111158113M. Ulrych1.8099111122LSep 13 · 15:00L. Havel1.831111113M. Ulrych1.834470LSep 13 · 14:30M. Ulrych1.8069110L. Sulava1.911111133LSep 13 · 13:00M. Stefek1.90101111113M. Ulrych1.80123851WSep 13 · 12:00M. Ulrych1.6111127113M. Stefek2.209101181
J. Strnad10
LSep 29 · 01:30J. Strnad2.10671181J. Briska1.6711119113WSep 29 · 00:30V. Hruska Sr2.10571111122J. Strnad1.67111187143WSep 28 · 23:30T. Regner1.403111031J. Strnad2.7511612113WSep 28 · 22:30J. Strnad1.911011117113M. Ulrych1.8012951182WSep 28 · 09:28J. Strnad1.50118914113V. Dolezal2.50711111282WSep 28 · 08:30J. Strnad1.911313113J. Briska1.80111190LSep 28 · 07:00J. Strnad1.831110851L. Sulava1.8331211113WSep 28 · 06:00V. Dolezal2.38531141J. Strnad1.5311116113WSep 27 · 09:29L. Sulava1.6791080J. Strnad2.101112113LSep 27 · 08:00J. Strnad1.8375100L. Sulava1.831111123
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