TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Stoch vs Marcel Heczko 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 28Finished
Jan Stoch
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
011114119115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Heczko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Stoch above · Marcel Heczko below
Set 1 · 0-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 62 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Marcel Heczko at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Jan Stoch 0–1 Marcel Heczko Jan Stoch has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Heczko beat Stoch 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:25What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stoch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stoch 1568 vs Heczko 1543
Stoch
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoch 40% vs Heczko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoch 40% vs Heczko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoch +1 · Heczko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Heczko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoch form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoch 1.67 / Heczko 2.10
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Heczko)+9.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13212597
Stoch1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 11 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it60% 9 of 15
Heczko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 62 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStoch0wins
AwayHeczko1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderHeczko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStochHeczkoS − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match52.048.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStochHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 105 vs 289 / 59441%48.7%43 / 105 vs 289 / 594Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeczkoStoch 1.67/Heczko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Heczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 28 · 15:00J. Stoch528111112102M. Heczko48115614123
J. Stoch10
WSep 28 · 16:00J. Levicky1.8057100J. Stoch1.911111123LSep 28 · 15:00M. Heczko1.83115614123J. Stoch1.838111112102WSep 28 · 14:30J. Stoch1.831111113D. Oborny1.838930LSep 2 · 17:00J. Stoch1.6711135892R. Skacelik2.104111111113LSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840WSep 2 · 15:30J. Stoch1.91111149113L. Martinak1.8055111142WSep 2 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.915111091J. Stoch1.8011512113LAug 12 · 17:00J. Stoch1.83711751R. Vavrecka1.8311511113LAug 12 · 16:00D. Machander1.83121199113J. Stoch1.83103111132LAug 12 · 15:00R. Vavrecka2.0081111113J. Stoch1.73118961
M. Heczko10
WSep 28 · 16:30M. Heczko1.831111113D. Oborny1.836790WSep 28 · 15:00M. Heczko1.83115614123J. Stoch1.838111112102LSep 28 · 14:00J. Levicky1.731111113M. Heczko2.008850LSep 28 · 12:58T. Petrek1.53511118113M. Heczko2.3811861192LSep 28 · 12:30M. Heczko1.83101181362D. Oborny1.831241111113LSep 28 · 11:00M. Heczko2.10145781T. Petrek1.67121111113LSep 28 · 10:00R. Skacelik1.67111156113M. Heczko2.1076111172LSep 27 · 09:30D. Oborny1.731111113M. Heczko2.008890WSep 27 · 08:00J. Levicky1.80711811M. Heczko1.9111911113WSep 27 · 07:00V. Zidek2.001111821M. Heczko1.7313711113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.