TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Volny vs Pavel Vinansky 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6118111210118711
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Vinansky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Volny above · Pavel Vinansky below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Pavel Vinansky at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Volny 1–1 Pavel Vinansky Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Volny beat Vinansky 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vinansky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Volny 1503 vs Vinansky 1611
Vinansky
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volny 60% vs Vinansky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volny 50% vs Vinansky 70%
Vinansky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volny -1 · Vinansky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vinansky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolny 2.25 / Vinansky 1.57
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vinansky)-4.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13210982
Volny2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 41 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Vinansky1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite75% won 38 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVolny1wins
AwayVinansky1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricVolnyVinanskyVolny − VinanskyBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match28.532.5−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolnyVinanskyBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 369 vs 74 / 12348%60.2%177 / 369 vs 74 / 123Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VinanskyVolny 2.25/Vinansky 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vinansky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vinansky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 28 · 10:45J. Volny3911116113P. Vinansky32661191
LSep 26 · 11:15J. Volny185580P. Vinansky331111113
J. Volny10
LSep 28 · 12:15J. Volny1.808750L. Lasota1.911111113WSep 28 · 10:45P. Vinansky1.36661191J. Volny3.0011116113WSep 28 · 10:15D. Vitasek1.91711691J. Volny1.8011311113LSep 27 · 17:09J. Volny2.2511771192L. Dzida1.57611119113WSep 27 · 16:15J. Volny2.201113113A. Cizek1.6181140WSep 27 · 14:45T. Molin1.53126119122J. Volny2.381011411143WSep 27 · 14:15L. Dzida1.4011912782J. Volny2.759111011113LSep 26 · 12:46T. Lysek1.3313811133J. Volny3.2511119111LSep 26 · 12:15T. Lysek1.7311712113J. Volny2.009111091LSep 26 · 11:15J. Volny2.255580P. Vinansky1.571111113
P. Vinansky10
WSep 28 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.531111113D. Vitasek2.388960LSep 28 · 10:45P. Vinansky1.36661191J. Volny3.0011116113WSep 28 · 09:45P. Vinansky1.401111113L. Lasota2.755570WSep 26 · 13:15A. Cizek1.931111211102P. Vinansky1.77132118123LSep 26 · 11:45A. Cizek2.75511811113P. Vinansky1.4011611642WSep 26 · 11:15J. Volny2.255580P. Vinansky1.571111113WSep 26 · 10:15P. Vinansky1.5015611113T. Lysek2.501311361WSep 21 · 20:43P. Vinansky1.8014411113D. Branny1.911211981WSep 21 · 20:15P. Vinansky2.001113133D. Branny1.73711110LSep 21 · 18:45E. Precek2.0011411113P. Vinansky1.73811331
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.