TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Horak vs Frantisek Briza 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311119118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Horak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Horak above · Frantisek Briza below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 63 set 3, 11-8 — our read held David Horak at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H David Horak 57–39 Frantisek Briza Frantisek Briza has won 39 of their 96 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Horak beat Briza 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-39 in 96
Horak
Correct
gap of 18 in 96, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1419 vs Briza 1423
Briza
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 60% vs Briza 80%
Briza
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 50% vs Briza 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -1 · Briza +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Horak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Briza form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 1.61 / Briza 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Horak)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13195771
Horak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 133 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it92% 72 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it78% 98 of 125
Briza2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 78 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back24% 32 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorak7wins
AwayBriza3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHorak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak83.3%5 of 6
AwayBriza50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak6Briza4n = 10Horak took 6 of 10
S2Horak5Briza5n = 10split evenly
S3Horak6Briza4n = 10Horak took 6 of 10
S4Horak6Briza2n = 8Horak took 6 of 8
S5Horak3Briza2n = 5Horak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorakBrizaH − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.738.9+2.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakBrizaBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 513 vs 373 / 81754.2%45.7%278 / 513 vs 373 / 817Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakHorak 1.61/Briza 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 15:30D. Horak361411113F. Briza2712870
LSep 20 · 09:30D. Horak3911511932F. Briza41411411113
WSep 20 · 06:00D. Horak49691211113F. Briza46111110952
WSep 19 · 02:00D. Horak45811411113F. Briza4411711692
LSep 18 · 15:30D. Horak341081151F. Briza4012116113
LSep 2 · 16:30D. Horak4541381372F. Briza5511111111113
WAug 27 · 01:00D. Horak49116511163F. Briza52911117142
WAug 15 · 21:04D. Horak4311912113F. Briza357111071
WAug 15 · 18:30D. Horak351311113F. Briza2111730
WAug 7 · 22:00D. Horak4211119113F. Briza28551171
D. Horak10
LSep 25 · 16:00D. Horak1.61971231O. Fejtek2.20111110113WSep 25 · 15:30F. Briza2.2012870D. Horak1.611411113WSep 25 · 14:00D. Horak1.611114116113T. Kolenic2.2071671172LSep 20 · 09:30D. Horak1.6011511932F. Briza2.20411411113WSep 20 · 08:00D. Horak1.281111133V. Dolezal3.5077110LSep 20 · 07:30T. Kolenic2.00861111113D. Horak1.7311119992WSep 20 · 06:00D. Horak1.61691211113F. Briza2.20111110952LSep 19 · 02:58D. Horak1.301061181O. Kucirek3.4012119113WSep 19 · 02:00D. Horak1.57811411113F. Briza2.2511711692LSep 19 · 01:00D. Horak2.2057111142A. Svoboda1.61111165113
F. Briza10
WSep 25 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.6744100F. Briza2.101111123LSep 25 · 15:30F. Briza2.2012870D. Horak1.611411113WSep 25 · 14:30O. Fejtek1.83810111182F. Briza1.83111269113WSep 20 · 09:30D. Horak1.6011511932F. Briza2.20411411113WSep 20 · 08:30F. Briza2.0041112113T. Kolenic1.731171081WSep 20 · 07:00F. Briza1.6111811113V. Dolezal2.20611761LSep 20 · 06:00D. Horak1.61691211113F. Briza2.20111110952LSep 19 · 02:00D. Horak1.57811411113F. Briza2.2511711692LSep 19 · 00:30F. Briza1.337111091O. Kucirek3.2511712113LSep 18 · 23:00F. Briza2.201112991M. Placek1.6161411113
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