TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Steffan vs Radek Bartunek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181161012116––
Radek Bartunek
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Bartunek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Radek Bartunek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Radek Bartunek at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 32–32 Radek Bartunek Dead even across their 64 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Steffan beat Bartunek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:11What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Steffan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-32 in 64
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1453 vs Bartunek 1452
Steffan
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 80% vs Bartunek 40%
Steffan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 50% vs Bartunek 70%
Bartunek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan +3 · Bartunek -2
Steffan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Steffan) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bartunek form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 1.80 / Bartunek 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Steffan)+2.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13186207
Steffan1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 117 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it89% 59 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it78% 90 of 116
Bartunek1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 43 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan5wins
AwayBartunek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan80%4 of 5
AwayBartunek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan5Bartunek5n = 10split evenly
S2Steffan6Bartunek4n = 10Steffan took 6 of 10
S3Steffan5Bartunek5n = 10split evenly
S4Steffan2Bartunek4n = 6Bartunek took 4 of 6
S5Steffan2Bartunek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanBartunekS − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.338.1−1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanBartunekBasisWin rate · lifetime466 / 978 vs 347 / 66647.7%52.1%466 / 978 vs 347 / 666Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SteffanSteffan 1.80/Bartunek 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Steffan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Steffan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 20:00J. Steffan4112117113R. Bartunek371081181
LSep 17 · 02:30J. Steffan2959150R. Bartunek391111173
LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan3611115632R. Bartunek46491111113
LAug 28 · 22:00J. Steffan357101171R. Bartunek4211128113
WAug 6 · 23:00J. Steffan43311114143R. Bartunek49118711122
LAug 6 · 01:00J. Steffan4288111142R. Bartunek46111194113
WAug 4 · 17:00J. Steffan341211113R. Bartunek2710890
WAug 4 · 14:30J. Steffan45111184113R. Bartunek3959111132
WAug 4 · 11:30J. Steffan341112113R. Bartunek2191020
LAug 2 · 02:30J. Steffan2411670R. Bartunek351311113
J. Steffan10
WSep 23 · 20:00R. Bartunek1.671081181J. Steffan2.1012117113WSep 23 · 19:00V. Kosar1.919750J. Steffan1.801111113WSep 23 · 18:30J. Steffan1.571211113J. Moravek2.2510770LSep 22 · 03:30J. Jnr1.6311111113J. Steffan2.13114791WSep 22 · 02:00P. Picek1.804380J. Steffan1.911111113LSep 22 · 24:30J. Steffan1.571311117102T. Andrle2.25159611123LSep 21 · 23:00J. Steffan2.20911911112J. Jnr1.61117117133WSep 21 · 22:00A. Svoboda1.80911571J. Steffan1.9111911113LSep 21 · 09:28T. Nohejl1.67126811143J. Steffan2.101011117122LSep 21 · 08:00T. Nohejl2.0061112113J. Steffan1.731141021
R. Bartunek10
LSep 23 · 20:00R. Bartunek1.671081181J. Steffan2.1012117113LSep 23 · 19:30J. Moravek2.50119118123R. Bartunek1.50911711102WSep 23 · 18:00R. Bartunek1.61117115133V. Kosar2.20611911112WSep 23 · 03:30R. Bartunek1.681113113M. Stefek2.0581150LSep 23 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.73111110113R. Bartunek2.00851281WSep 23 · 01:00M. Stefek2.501111891R. Bartunek1.5013511113WSep 22 · 23:30R. Bartunek1.53118119113T. Regner2.3881171172WSep 22 · 22:00R. Bartunek1.5311711113J. Strnad2.38811951WSep 21 · 21:30R. Bartunek1.671111113J. Moravek2.087980WSep 21 · 20:00V. Nohejl2.0012740R. Bartunek1.731411113
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