TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Vesecky vs Martin Cerny 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
David Vesecky
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114711611118711
Martin Cerny
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:06 and never touched — 61.1% is still 61.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
61.1%
61.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 61.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 54–74 Martin Cerny David Vesecky has won 54 of their 128 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 4h before this match
Cerny beat Vesecky 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-74 in 128
Cerny
Correct
gap of 20 in 128, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1621 vs Cerny 1868
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 247 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 40% vs Cerny 80%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 30% vs Cerny 90%
Cerny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky +2 · Cerny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 2.10 / Cerny 1.65
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Cerny)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13185297
Vesecky2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 58 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back28% 19 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Cerny1.65
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite68% won 170 of 252
Up 2–0, closes it97% 87 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it85% 123 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky1wins
AwayCerny9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeseckyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCerny87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S2Vesecky2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S3Vesecky3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Vesecky4Cerny2n = 6Vesecky took 4 of 6
S5Vesecky0Cerny3n = 3Cerny took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyCernyV − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.040.1−10.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 647 vs 494 / 85055.2%58.1%357 / 647 vs 494 / 850Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyVesecky 2.10/Cerny 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.2%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 14:55D. Vesecky3784111132M. Cerny49111188113
LSep 23 · 11:25D. Vesecky206950M. Cerny331111113
LSep 8 · 10:55D. Vesecky29118551M. Cerny4291111113
LSep 7 · 12:25D. Vesecky144460M. Cerny331111113
WSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky4291111113M. Cerny30118381
LSep 2 · 11:25D. Vesecky46111141282M. Cerny541391110113
LAug 31 · 14:45D. Vesecky175750M. Cerny331111113
LAug 31 · 10:55D. Vesecky49111461352M. Cerny545161111113
LAug 28 · 06:55D. Vesecky2376100M. Cerny341111123
LAug 27 · 08:25D. Vesecky23631131M. Cerny3911116113
D. Vesecky10
WSep 23 · 16:55D. Vesecky2.3891211113D. Bochnak1.531110391WSep 23 · 15:55D. Vesecky1.7311112113L. Soucek2.00281181LSep 23 · 14:55D. Vesecky2.1084111132M. Cerny1.67111188113LSep 23 · 14:02P. Benes1.33111116113D. Vesecky3.25761891LSep 23 · 13:55P. Benes—111116113D. Vesecky—761891LSep 23 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.574450P. Benes2.251111113LSep 23 · 11:55J. Kocab1.441114113D. Vesecky2.6351280LSep 23 · 11:25M. Cerny1.401111113D. Vesecky2.756950WSep 8 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.8011128113J. Zacharda1.919101171LSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113
M. Cerny10
WSep 23 · 17:25L. Soucek2.20411491M. Cerny1.6111811113LSep 23 · 16:25M. Cerny1.9111951182D. Bochnak1.80711118113WSep 23 · 14:55D. Vesecky2.1084111132M. Cerny1.67111188113WSep 23 · 14:24M. Cerny1.3317114113J. Kocab3.251581191WSep 23 · 12:55J. Kocab3.403720M. Cerny1.301111113WSep 23 · 12:25P. Benes3.007460M. Cerny1.361111113WSep 23 · 11:25M. Cerny1.401111113D. Vesecky2.756950WSep 20 · 22:40M. Cerny1.551111911113J. Zacharda2.2578111352WSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny1.9191112173D. Bochnak1.8011510151WSep 20 · 19:55M. Brozek4.003590M. Cerny1.221111113
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