TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Leos Havrda vs Miroslav Barta 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Leos Havrda
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119119711911119
Miroslav Barta
Away
1.60
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:11 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Barta to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLeos Havrda above · Miroslav Barta below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Miroslav Barta at 55.2%
98 points played in total.
H2H Leos Havrda 9–15 Miroslav Barta Leos Havrda has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Barta beat Havrda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:11What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Barta
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Barta
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1256 vs Barta 1317
Barta
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 60% vs Barta 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 50% vs Barta 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda +2 · Barta -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Barta) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 2.20 / Barta 1.60
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Barta)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13184997
Havrda2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 45 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Barta1.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 73 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it81% 48 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda5wins
AwayBarta5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda80%4 of 5
AwayBarta80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda5Barta5n = 10split evenly
S2Havrda4Barta6n = 10Barta took 6 of 10
S3Havrda6Barta4n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S4Havrda3Barta2n = 5Havrda took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaBartaH − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.734.0+2.7per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaBartaBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 488 vs 241 / 51746.1%46.6%225 / 488 vs 241 / 517Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartaHavrda 2.20/Barta 1.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.3%
Barta · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 14:00L. Havrda35971181M. Barta4011117113
WJun 24 · 14:30L. Havrda47711711113M. Barta3911311772
WJun 11 · 17:00L. Havrda341112113M. Barta2581070
WJun 11 · 16:00L. Havrda331111113M. Barta178360
WJun 3 · 15:30L. Havrda381116113M. Barta2531480
WMay 25 · 15:30L. Havrda49111215113M. Barta397141351
LMay 24 · 07:00L. Havrda2685130M. Barta371111153
LMay 23 · 06:30L. Havrda49108111192M. Barta47121176113
LMay 12 · 16:00L. Havrda31119651M. Barta3851111113
LMar 21 · 11:00L. Havrda258890M. Barta331111113
L. Havrda10
WSep 23 · 16:30L. Havrda1.57711117143J. Grohsgott2.25113711122WSep 23 · 15:00L. Havrda2.101111123M. Novotny1.6798100LSep 23 · 14:00M. Barta1.6711117113L. Havrda2.10971181LSep 20 · 02:59P. Berdych1.611111123L. Havrda2.2065100WSep 20 · 02:00L. Havrda1.611111113J. Grohsgott2.206780LSep 20 · 01:00L. Havrda2.2011115652M. Novotny1.61951111113WSep 20 · 24:00P. Berdych1.50613111172L. Havrda2.50111579113LSep 19 · 22:30J. Pelikan1.911111113L. Havrda1.807980WSep 15 · 17:10L. Havrda1.92812611113J. Svec1.78111011962LSep 15 · 16:00V. Stach1.831111113L. Havrda1.839990
M. Barta10
LSep 23 · 16:00M. Barta2.10911961M. Novotny1.6711911113WSep 23 · 15:30J. Grohsgott2.3811115592M. Barta1.53671111113WSep 23 · 14:00M. Barta1.6711117113L. Havrda2.10971181LSep 22 · 21:00M. Barta2.20411931P. Franc1.5811811113WSep 22 · 20:30M. Barta2.751111113J. Framberk1.404850LSep 22 · 19:00M. Barta2.7510311101T. Regner1.4012117123LSep 22 · 18:00P. Franc2.101111113M. Barta1.677640LSep 17 · 21:28J. Strnad1.67111111113M. Barta2.10138751WSep 17 · 20:00J. Strnad1.617146111M. Barta2.20111211133WSep 17 · 19:00J. Grohsgott2.205890M. Barta1.611111113
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