TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Kycelt vs Jakub Vales 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Jakub Kycelt
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191151012115––
Jakub Vales
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:52 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kycelt above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 74 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jakub Vales at 56.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kycelt 7–12 Jakub Vales Jakub Kycelt has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:52What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vales
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Vales
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kycelt 1880 vs Vales 1847
Kycelt
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kycelt 80% vs Vales 60%
Kycelt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kycelt 80% vs Vales 40%
Kycelt
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kycelt +3 · Vales +2
Kycelt
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Vales)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kycelt form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKycelt 2.25 / Vales 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Vales)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13184105
Kycelt2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 50 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Vales1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 105 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it86% 44 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it69% 65 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKycelt3wins
AwayVales7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVales leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKycelt50%3 of 6
AwayVales100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kycelt6Vales4n = 10Kycelt took 6 of 10
S2Kycelt4Vales6n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S3Kycelt6Vales4n = 10Kycelt took 6 of 10
S4Kycelt1Vales7n = 8Vales took 7 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKyceltValesK − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.939.8−4.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyceltValesBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 333 vs 284 / 52050.8%54.6%169 / 333 vs 284 / 520Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ValesKycelt 2.25/Vales 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kycelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 01:00J. Kycelt334121251J. Vales46111410113
LJun 25 · 01:30J. Kycelt26811341J. Vales4211911113
LJun 15 · 18:30J. Kycelt371091171J. Vales4012116113
LJun 5 · 24:00J. Kycelt381188111J. Vales4491111133
WJun 4 · 11:00J. Kycelt381413113J. Vales30121170
LJun 4 · 07:30J. Kycelt4411811772J. Vales50911811113
WApr 23 · 19:00J. Kycelt3711123113J. Vales399101191
WApr 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt351311113J. Vales2811890
LMar 18 · 24:00J. Kycelt22116411J. Vales3961111113
LFeb 20 · 09:58J. Kycelt3910101181J. Vales4012125113
J. Kycelt10
WSep 24 · 15:00J. Kycelt3.25111110113V. Koubek1.33771291WSep 24 · 14:00T. Postelt1.7341151452J. Kycelt2.001131112113WSep 22 · 03:30M. Huk2.5571050J. Kycelt1.451112113LSep 22 · 02:30J. Kycelt1.5398130M. Huk2.381111153WSep 22 · 01:30R. Urbaniec2.5011691162J. Kycelt1.50511115113WSep 22 · 24:00J. Kycelt1.2261115123M. Wagner4.0011713101WSep 21 · 23:00O. Svacha2.251111711102J. Kycelt1.57381113123WSep 10 · 16:58J. Kycelt1.441111118113O. Kolisnyk2.6313691152WSep 10 · 16:00O. Kolisnyk2.385990J. Kycelt1.531111113LSep 10 · 15:00P. Gireth1.36127117113J. Kycelt3.00101181142
J. Vales10
WSep 24 · 15:30J. Vales1.501111113T. Postelt2.508530WSep 24 · 14:30V. Koubek2.00125761J. Vales1.73101111113LSep 22 · 13:00J. Vales1.9531111572E. Mares1.70119611113LSep 22 · 12:30J. Vales1.91781171L. Jindrak1.8011119113WSep 22 · 11:00J. Vales1.8361112113E. Mares1.831171091WSep 22 · 10:00T. Kos1.9111891152J. Vales1.80611114113LSep 22 · 09:02L. Jindrak1.80911116113J. Vales1.9111581172LSep 22 · 08:00L. Jindrak1.801171011113J. Vales1.9161112772LSep 22 · 07:00E. Mares1.8311113113J. Vales1.83551151LSep 22 · 06:30J. Vales1.5771160T. Kos2.251113113
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