TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Martin Rek vs Jan Hrncir 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Adam Martin Rek
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111191012116511
Jan Hrncir
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Martin Rek above · Jan Hrncir below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 92 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Adam Martin Rek 4–3 Jan Hrncir Jan Hrncir has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:10What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1614 vs Hrncir 1534
Rek
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 40% vs Hrncir 60%
Hrncir
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 60% vs Hrncir 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek -2 · Hrncir -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrncir form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.57 / Hrncir 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Rek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13182933
Rek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 101 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it72% 75 of 104
Hrncir2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 7 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back50% 3 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeRek4wins
AwayHrncir3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderRek leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHrncir40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek2Hrncir5n = 7Hrncir took 5 of 7
S2Rek5Hrncir2n = 7Rek took 5 of 7
S3Rek3Hrncir4n = 7Hrncir took 4 of 7
S4Rek2Hrncir4n = 6Hrncir took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricRekHrncirR − HBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match36.136.7−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekHrncirBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 541 vs 108 / 19657.9%55.1%313 / 541 vs 108 / 196Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.57/Hrncir 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hrncir won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WApr 17 · 21:25A. Rek481111114113J. Hrncir3913531172
WApr 17 · 18:50A. Rek4181111113J. Hrncir30117751
LApr 6 · 20:20A. Rek27115651J. Hrncir4181111113
WDec 23 · 09:25A. Rek45111265113J. Hrncir46710111172
LOct 24 · 18:20A. Rek3510114101J. Hrncir4112611123
WOct 10 · 18:50A. Rek4291111113J. Hrncir27117631
LAug 31 · 16:10A. Rek156360J. Hrncir331111113
A. Rek10
LSep 23 · 19:55A. Rek1.53143111192M. Sulc2.38161199113LSep 23 · 18:55A. Rek1.5777111192O. Fiklik2.25111159113WSep 17 · 10:38O. Fiklik2.2510960A. Rek1.571211113LSep 17 · 09:25A. Rek1.57111259102O. Fiklik2.259101111123WSep 17 · 07:55A. Langer2.38119115102A. Rek1.53811611123WSep 17 · 07:25P. Moravec2.50211751A. Rek1.5011711113LSep 16 · 10:30A. Rek1.5011781542V. Jr2.459111113113WSep 16 · 09:25V. Jr2.50615331A. Rek1.50111311113WSep 16 · 08:25A. Rek1.5711811113P. Moravec2.25711581WSep 16 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.2510101131A. Rek1.5712127113
J. Hrncir10
LSep 23 · 20:25O. Fiklik1.671112143J. Hrncir2.10810120WSep 23 · 19:25J. Hrncir1.831211113M. Sulc1.8310770WSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113WSep 16 · 16:55J. Volek2.00128100J. Hrncir1.731411123LSep 16 · 16:25A. Kosacky1.441112113J. Hrncir2.6361070LSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Hrncir1.721111113J. Volek2.007560LSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680LSep 10 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.4410580M. Sochor2.631211113WSep 10 · 14:55J. Volek1.839111071J. Hrncir1.8311312113
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