TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bartlomiej Molka vs Mateusz Galus 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Bartlomiej Molka
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411511117118411
Mateusz Galus
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:10 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
83 points played in total.
Set by set
411511117118411
H2H Bartlomiej Molka 38–44 Mateusz Galus Bartlomiej Molka has won 38 of their 82 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-44 in 82
Galus
Correct
gap of 6 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molka 1563 vs Galus 1654
Galus
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molka 60% vs Galus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molka 60% vs Galus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molka +1 · Galus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Galus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolka 2.10 / Galus 1.65
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Galus)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13182198
Molka2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 165 of 379
Down 0–1, comes back20% 44 of 216
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 122
Galus1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 128 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it99% 66 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it78% 94 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolka5wins
AwayGalus5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolka75%3 of 4
AwayGalus66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molka4Galus6n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S2Molka4Galus6n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S3Molka5Galus5n = 10split evenly
S4Molka4Galus4n = 8split evenly
S5Molka2Galus1n = 3Molka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolkaGalusM − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.040.4−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolkaGalusBasisWin rate · lifetime542 / 1177 vs 361 / 67946.1%53.2%542 / 1177 vs 361 / 679Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GalusMolka 2.10/Galus 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.2%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 07:30B. Molka3545111142M. Galus48111178113
LSep 11 · 13:00B. Molka226790M. Galus331111113
WSep 11 · 09:00B. Molka4211911113M. Galus36911971
LAug 31 · 12:00B. Molka156540M. Galus331111113
WAug 30 · 22:45B. Molka49131158123M. Galus491161111102
WAug 30 · 18:35B. Molka44411126113M. Galus48117101192
WAug 26 · 10:30B. Molka4591312113M. Galus3911111071
LAug 20 · 10:30B. Molka3911111161M. Galus4313613113
WAug 19 · 13:30B. Molka4011611123M. Galus368117101
LAug 19 · 11:30B. Molka29116391M. Galus3961111113
B. Molka10
WSep 23 · 05:30B. Molka2.4011811113M. Stepien1.50911981LSep 22 · 13:40M. Lysakowski1.36111110113B. Molka2.90691271WSep 22 · 11:00B. Molka2.251111113D. Stapor1.575980WSep 22 · 09:30B. Molka1.651111113S. Radlo2.109990LSep 22 · 08:00B. Molka1.904560S. Wloszek1.761111113LSep 22 · 06:30B. Molka2.608911101M. Stepien1.4111116123WSep 22 · 05:00B. Molka2.251451111143M. Lysakowski1.541211913122WSep 21 · 13:00S. Wloszek1.959780B. Molka1.771111113WSep 21 · 11:30B. Molka2.051112711113P. Gola1.66910111382LSep 21 · 09:30D. Stapor1.571113113B. Molka2.2091190
M. Galus10
WSep 23 · 07:00M. Galus1.441111113P. Gola2.504750LSep 19 · 14:05M. Galus1.83811491D. Stapor1.8911711113WSep 19 · 12:35M. Galus1.601111113M. Stepien2.208930LSep 19 · 10:35M. Ovcharenko1.57511118123M. Galus2.20116511102WSep 19 · 09:35M. Galus1.801111113D. Stapor1.903690LSep 19 · 08:35D. Skvarskyi1.911411712113M. Galus1.78164111072WSep 19 · 07:05M. Galus1.4911118113S. Wloszek2.50441181WSep 18 · 12:40M. Galus—11119113D. Stapor—791181LSep 18 · 11:30M. Stepien2.05117119113M. Galus1.6691171182LSep 18 · 10:30D. Skvarskyi1.57611118113M. Galus2.2511961162
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