TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Kovshun vs Andrii Martyniuk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118115811811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Andrii Martyniuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 55.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 8–4 Andrii Martyniuk Andrii Martyniuk has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovshun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Kovshun
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1618 vs Martyniuk 1512
Kovshun
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 100% vs Martyniuk 20%
Kovshun
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 60% vs Martyniuk 40%
Kovshun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun +5 · Martyniuk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kovshun) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martyniuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 1.73 / Martyniuk 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kovshun)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13190494
Kovshun1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 100 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 87
Martyniuk2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 21 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back15% 5 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun7wins
AwayMartyniuk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun83.3%5 of 6
AwayMartyniuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun6Martyniuk4n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S2Kovshun8Martyniuk2n = 10Kovshun took 8 of 10
S3Kovshun3Martyniuk7n = 10Martyniuk took 7 of 10
S4Kovshun4Martyniuk3n = 7Kovshun took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunMartyniukK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.736.2+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunMartyniukBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 628 vs 179 / 34453.7%52%337 / 628 vs 179 / 344Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKovshun 1.73/Martyniuk 2.00
Miss
What we said
57.7%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Martyniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 11:00Y. Kovshun5111218113A. Martyniuk459191161
LApr 28 · 06:00Y. Kovshun37911891A. Martyniuk3911611113
LApr 12 · 10:05Y. Kovshun144460A. Martyniuk331111113
WMar 25 · 16:40Y. Kovshun341211113A. Martyniuk2810990
WMar 23 · 11:05Y. Kovshun48911611113A. Martyniuk4311811672
WMar 19 · 06:05Y. Kovshun331111113A. Martyniuk246990
WMar 18 · 14:40Y. Kovshun481111105113A. Martyniuk4889121182
WMar 12 · 11:05Y. Kovshun44111111113A. Martyniuk32134871
LFeb 26 · 12:05Y. Kovshun30115591A. Martyniuk4071111113
WFeb 25 · 05:30Y. Kovshun3811115113A. Martyniuk30781141
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 25 · 05:00Y. Kovshun1.501081111113A. Troyan2.5012113882WSep 22 · 11:00A. Martyniuk1.839191161Y. Kovshun1.8311218113WSep 22 · 10:00A. Troyan2.751176101Y. Kovshun1.4071111123WSep 22 · 08:30O. Volynets1.837690Y. Kovshun1.831111113WSep 22 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.38114661Y. Kovshun1.5391111113LSep 22 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.6781111113Y. Kovshun2.10119651LSep 19 · 12:05Y. Makovka2.251615710113Y. Kovshun1.571413111282LSep 19 · 10:35Y. Kovshun2.257101191V. Kryvenko1.5711127113LSep 19 · 08:35A. Kotiash2.2011116113Y. Kovshun1.61961141WSep 19 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.809660Y. Kovshun1.911111113
A. Martyniuk10
LSep 25 · 05:30A. Martyniuk2.2011671172S. Kyienko1.61811118113LSep 24 · 12:05A. Martyniuk1.807660S. Solomko1.911111113LSep 24 · 10:05O. Leonenko1.83131485113A. Martyniuk1.831112111172WSep 24 · 08:05A. Kurtenko3.25811114102A. Martyniuk1.33118511123LSep 24 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.40117101182E. Populovskyi2.75811128113WSep 24 · 06:05O. Lipeiko2.75117110A. Martyniuk1.401311133LSep 22 · 11:00A. Martyniuk1.839191161Y. Kovshun1.8311218113WSep 22 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.4076110A. Martyniuk2.751111133LSep 22 · 08:00A. Martyniuk2.1011118862A. Troyan1.67771111113WSep 22 · 07:00O. Volynets1.8011910111A. Martyniuk1.9171112133
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