TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kosowski vs Josef Braun 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Jakub Kosowski
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611116611114911
Josef Braun
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:44 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Kosowski to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kosowski above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 86 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Kosowski at 58.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kosowski 26–17 Josef Braun Josef Braun has won 17 of their 43 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kosowski beat Braun 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:44What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kosowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-17 in 43
Kosowski
Wrong
gap of 9 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosowski 1952 vs Braun 1865
Kosowski
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosowski 100% vs Braun 40%
Kosowski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosowski 90% vs Braun 50%
Kosowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosowski +8 · Braun -2
Kosowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kosowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosowski 1.61 / Braun 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kosowski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13169309
Kosowski1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 270 of 406
Up 2–0, closes it95% 125 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it86% 212 of 248
Braun2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 82 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosowski8wins
AwayBraun2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKosowski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosowski75%6 of 8
AwayBraunn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosowski8Braun2n = 10Kosowski took 8 of 10
S2Kosowski4Braun6n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S3Kosowski7Braun3n = 10Kosowski took 7 of 10
S4Kosowski4Braun4n = 8split evenly
S5Kosowski3Braun0n = 3Kosowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosowskiBraunK − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.838.1+4.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosowskiBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime732 / 1242 vs 510 / 97558.9%52.3%732 / 1242 vs 510 / 975Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosowskiKosowski 1.61/Braun 2.20
Miss
What we said
58.9%
Kosowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 06:30J. Kosowski331111113J. Braun199640
LAug 24 · 13:20J. Kosowski4011111081J. Braun4481312113
WAug 6 · 10:50J. Kosowski4991811113J. Braun421116961
WJul 13 · 03:25J. Kosowski4111811113J. Braun34811781
WJul 7 · 13:20J. Kosowski331111113J. Braun208750
WJul 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski48118117113J. Braun4691171182
LJul 3 · 06:05J. Kosowski43179891J. Braun48151111113
WMay 27 · 13:10J. Kosowski49116912113J. Braun47711111082
WMay 27 · 05:00J. Kosowski4281111123J. Braun311155101
WMay 13 · 12:00J. Kosowski501341111113J. Braun50111191362
J. Kosowski10
LSep 22 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.8041161172G. Felkel1.91117118113WSep 22 · 08:05J. Kosowski1.5711711113G. Felkel2.25811861WSep 22 · 06:30J. Braun2.209640J. Kosowski1.611111113WSep 22 · 05:40M. Murawski1.833350J. Kosowski1.831111113WSep 22 · 04:55J. Kosowski2.0011511113A. Wiecek1.73611391WSep 22 · 03:45J. Kosowski1.4412101211113D. Michna2.63101214882WSep 18 · 15:00A. Grela2.3811712372J. Kosowski1.538111011113WSep 18 · 14:10J. Kuzmicz2.20119101142J. Kosowski1.61711129113WSep 18 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.44111011113J. Stecyszyn2.63912791LSep 18 · 11:40J. Kosowski1.6710111111102J. Zandecki2.10128137123
J. Braun10
LSep 22 · 07:45J. Braun1.7366100D. Michna2.001111123LSep 22 · 06:30J. Braun2.209640J. Kosowski1.611111113WSep 22 · 05:15J. Braun2.7591112113G. Felkel1.401171081WSep 22 · 04:10M. Murawski1.73611521J. Braun2.0011711113LSep 22 · 03:25J. Braun2.38111179112A. Wiecek1.53271111133LSep 15 · 14:10K. Strowski2.2011911113J. Braun1.61611961WSep 15 · 13:20T. Spanik1.67111191262J. Braun2.101391110113WSep 15 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.6781191182J. Braun2.10116113113LSep 15 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.5711711113J. Braun2.25711281WSep 15 · 09:00M. Olejnik1.73151061172J. Braun2.001312115113
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