Jacek Zelezik vs Zbigniew Nocun 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Jacek Zelezik

Home

1.67

At publish

Won last 10

Form at publish

10–0Last 10Won last 10

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

115611511411––

Zbigniew Nocun

Away

2.10

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:57 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%

Graded at full time

Jacek Zelezik to win

58.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Zbigniew Nocun below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 4-11

Point 64 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Jacek Zelezik at 58.6%

64 points played in total.

H2H Jacek Zelezik 17–29 Zbigniew Nocun Jacek Zelezik has won 17 of their 46 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Zelezik

Zelezik 1.67/Nocun 2.10

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.6%

Zelezik · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Nocun won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 22:57

58.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 1.4pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Zelezik

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

17-29 in 46

Nocun

Correct

gap of 12 in 46, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Zelezik 1669 vs Nocun 1331

Zelezik

Wrong

both rated, 338 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Zelezik 100% vs Nocun 40%

Zelezik

Wrong

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Zelezik 100% vs Nocun 30%

Zelezik

Wrong

70pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Zelezik +10 · Nocun +1

Zelezik

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Zelezik) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Zelezik: form 100%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsZelezik 1.666 / Nocun 2.10

Signal prob.59% / 41%

Edge (Zelezik)-1.4pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 6h before this match

Zelezik beat Nocun 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeZelezik5wins

AwayNocun5wins

3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeZelezik100%4 of 4

AwayNocun83.3%5 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Zelezik4Nocun6n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10

S2Zelezik6Nocun4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10

S3Zelezik6Nocun4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10

S4Zelezik6Nocun1n = 7Zelezik took 6 of 7

S5Zelezik0Nocun3n = 3Nocun took 3 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricZelezikNocunZ − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.938.4+0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricZelezikNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 775 vs 733 / 123656.5%59.3%438 / 775 vs 733 / 1236Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.5per match

TT Elite Series · #13284153

Zelezik1.67

100%won 10 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 10

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite72% won 209 of 289

Up 2–0, closes it96% 123 of 128

Up 1–0, closes it83% 159 of 192

Nocun2.10

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog38% won 71 of 186

Down 0–1, comes back12% 13 of 108

Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61

Jacek Zelezik vs Zbigniew Nocun 1-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jacek Zelezik vs Zbigniew Nocun 1-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.