TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Kubiak vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210611611115113
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Artur Kubiak @ 2.00 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingArtur Kubiak above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 86 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Artur Kubiak 32–28 Zbigniew Nocun Zbigniew Nocun has won 28 of their 60 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kubiak beat Nocun 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 01:26Sent to Pro: Artur Kubiak @ 2.00 · Won
54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-28 in 60
Kubiak
Correct
gap of 4 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubiak 1406 vs Nocun 1360
Kubiak
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubiak 40% vs Nocun 20%
Kubiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubiak 40% vs Nocun 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubiak +1 · Nocun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubiak 2.00 / Nocun 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nocun)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13260309
Kubiak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 73 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back16% 21 of 133
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 81
Nocun1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 339 of 510
Up 2–0, closes it94% 167 of 177
Up 1–0, closes it86% 243 of 284
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubiak4wins
AwayNocun6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubiak66.7%2 of 3
AwayNocun71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubiak3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S2Kubiak4Nocun6n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S3Kubiak5Nocun5n = 10split evenly
S4Kubiak2Nocun5n = 7Nocun took 5 of 7
S5Kubiak3Nocun1n = 4Kubiak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubiakNocunK − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.141.7−6.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubiakNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 909 vs 731 / 122854.5%59.5%495 / 909 vs 731 / 1228Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakKubiak 2.00/Nocun 1.73
Hit
What we said
54%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Artur Kubiak @ 2.00 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–2
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 01:25A. Kubiak29510140Z. Nocun391112163
LSep 23 · 19:20A. Kubiak3811101161Z. Nocun4413128113
LAug 31 · 01:45A. Kubiak361361521Z. Nocun50151113113
LAug 30 · 16:15A. Kubiak114340Z. Nocun331111113
WAug 16 · 01:10A. Kubiak47712611113Z. Nocun50111011992
WAug 15 · 19:10A. Kubiak44741111113Z. Nocun3911113592
LAug 13 · 01:45A. Kubiak31811661Z. Nocun4111811113
WAug 12 · 16:15A. Kubiak351113113Z. Nocun2461170
LJun 30 · 00:30A. Kubiak3811119432Z. Nocun48781111113
WJun 29 · 18:30A. Kubiak42114115113Z. Nocun4991191192
A. Kubiak10
WOct 9 · 00:35A. Skupinski2.63129481A. Kubiak1.44101111113LOct 8 · 23:45M. Guzik1.33111110113A. Kubiak3.25661291LOct 8 · 22:55A. Kubiak2.384116121H. Tkaczyk1.5311611143LOct 8 · 21:45A. Kubiak2.004270A. Zmijewski1.731111113WOct 8 · 20:05A. Kubiak1.801111113Z. Nocun1.913940WOct 8 · 18:30A. Skupinski2.75108111112A. Kubiak1.40121188113LOct 8 · 17:45A. Zmijewski1.61911127133A. Kubiak2.201141011112LOct 8 · 16:55A. Kubiak2.3881181192H. Tkaczyk1.53117116113LOct 8 · 15:50A. Kubiak1.4091111982P. Gesiarz2.75118611113WOct 6 · 02:20J. Michalik2.1061060A. Kubiak1.661112113
Z. Nocun10
WOct 9 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk1.7311891192Z. Nocun2.00911115113LOct 8 · 23:20A. Skupinski3.091111113Z. Nocun1.276660LOct 8 · 22:35A. Zmijewski1.611111113Z. Nocun2.208550LOct 8 · 21:00M. Guzik1.141111163Z. Nocun5.0034140LOct 8 · 20:05A. Kubiak1.801111113Z. Nocun1.913940LOct 8 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.671111113Z. Nocun2.107870LOct 8 · 17:20A. Skupinski2.631111113Z. Nocun1.443270LOct 8 · 16:35P. Gesiarz2.381111113Z. Nocun1.538970WOct 8 · 15:00A. Zmijewski1.6779111382Z. Nocun2.101111511113WOct 8 · 02:35Z. Nocun2.101112163H. Tkaczyk1.67810140
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