TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jacek Zelezik vs Michal Wolny 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11711913151210––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:50 and never touched: 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
11711913151210––
H2H Jacek Zelezik 10–3 Michal Wolny Michal Wolny has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Zelezik beat Wolny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:5064.3%Our read80.6%to break even at 1.24
short by 16.3pp80.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.24 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.24 (75%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Zelezik
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1628 vs Wolny 1320
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 308 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 80% vs Wolny 60%
Zelezik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 80% vs Wolny 60%
Zelezik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +1 · Wolny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Zelezik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wolny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (26%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.24 / Wolny 3.80
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Zelezik)-16.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13259840
Zelezik1.24
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 202 of 281
Up 2–0, closes it96% 117 of 122
Up 1–0, closes it82% 153 of 186
Wolny3.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog23% won 32 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back10% 9 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik8wins
AwayWolny2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik100%6 of 6
AwayWolny50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik6Wolny4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S2Zelezik8Wolny2n = 10Zelezik took 8 of 10
S3Zelezik8Wolny2n = 10Zelezik took 8 of 10
S4Zelezik1Wolny3n = 4Wolny took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikWolnyZ − WBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.030.8+5.2per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikWolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime429 / 766 vs 275 / 58056%47.4%429 / 766 vs 275 / 580Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.24/Wolny 3.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 21:55J. Zelezik331111113M. Wolny205870
WSep 4 · 04:20J. Zelezik49911126113M. Wolny47116101192
WSep 3 · 18:45J. Zelezik331111113M. Wolny218850
WAug 1 · 00:00J. Zelezik4011115133M. Wolny369511111
WJul 31 · 16:00J. Zelezik331111113M. Wolny199550
WJul 23 · 03:55J. Zelezik331111113M. Wolny186750
WJul 22 · 21:55J. Zelezik571111119153M. Wolny51135911132
LApr 10 · 21:10J. Zelezik311071131M. Wolny4212118113
WApr 10 · 16:50J. Zelezik331111113M. Wolny214980
LJan 29 · 06:05J. Zelezik187560M. Wolny331111113
J. Zelezik10
WOct 9 · 02:45J. Michalik3.2068120J. Zelezik1.311111143LOct 9 · 01:30M. Machelski3.351117913113J. Zelezik1.23915111562WOct 8 · 23:55A. Krezel2.15111071152J. Zelezik1.55712115113WOct 8 · 23:05J. Michalik2.8710960J. Zelezik1.371211113WOct 8 · 21:55J. Zelezik1.231111113M. Wolny3.355870LOct 8 · 20:45D. Molenda1.331113133J. Zelezik2.95911110WOct 8 · 19:30M. Machelski1.7471161192J. Zelezik1.99119117113WOct 8 · 17:55A. Krezel1.98710111142J. Zelezik1.73111289113WOct 8 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.502340J. Zelezik1.501111113WOct 8 · 01:00Z. Nocun1.83109100J. Zelezik1.831211123
M. Wolny10
WOct 9 · 01:55A. Krezel1.2798111282M. Wolny3.201111710113LOct 9 · 01:10J. Michalik1.7011611113M. Wolny2.00811681WOct 8 · 23:30A. Barton3.805650M. Wolny1.201111113WOct 8 · 22:40M. Machelski2.3051260M. Wolny1.551114113LOct 8 · 21:55J. Zelezik1.231111113M. Wolny3.355870LOct 8 · 19:55A. Krezel1.5012118113M. Wolny2.401051161LOct 8 · 19:10D. Molenda1.151111133M. Wolny5.0097110WOct 8 · 17:30J. Michalik1.6781151342M. Wolny2.101181111113WOct 5 · 08:45M. Wolny1.201111113T. Kordaszewski3.807840WOct 5 · 07:10M. Wolny1.45111110113D. Maszczynski2.55971261
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