TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Wolny vs Dariusz Maszczynski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191171012116––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:09 and never touched: 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Wolny to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1191171012116––
H2H Michal Wolny 9–1 Dariusz Maszczynski Dariusz Maszczynski has won 1 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:0968.8%Our read69.0%to break even at 1.45
short by 0.2pp69.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.45 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Wolny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-1 in 10
Wolny
Correct
gap of 8 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wolny 1292 vs Maszczynski 1186
Wolny
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wolny 80% vs Maszczynski 100%
Maszczynski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wolny 50% vs Maszczynski 70%
Maszczynski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wolny +3 · Maszczynski +6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Wolny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maszczynski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (39%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWolny 1.45 / Maszczynski 2.55
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Wolny)-0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13247110
Wolny1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 57 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it83% 45 of 54
Maszczynski2.55
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog23% won 70 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back12% 25 of 206
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWolny9wins
AwayMaszczynski1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWolny leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWolny100%7 of 7
AwayMaszczynski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wolny7Maszczynski3n = 10Wolny took 7 of 10
S2Wolny6Maszczynski4n = 10Wolny took 6 of 10
S3Wolny8Maszczynski2n = 10Wolny took 8 of 10
S4Wolny5Maszczynski2n = 7Wolny took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWolnyMaszczynskiW − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.832.9+8.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWolnyMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 586 vs 109 / 48046.9%22.7%275 / 586 vs 109 / 480Avg sets wonper match1.91.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.533.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WolnyWolny 1.45/Maszczynski 2.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Wolny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wolny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 07:10M. Wolny43111110113D. Maszczynski34971261
WSep 14 · 05:50M. Wolny361111143D. Maszczynski2897120
WAug 31 · 05:50M. Wolny52891111133D. Maszczynski41111153112
WAug 24 · 04:00M. Wolny4391211113D. Maszczynski331110571
LAug 10 · 04:50M. Wolny4491111131D. Maszczynski4611713153
WAug 3 · 06:45M. Wolny351111133D. Maszczynski2164110
WJul 27 · 04:50M. Wolny4011711113D. Maszczynski35711891
WJul 20 · 04:25M. Wolny331111113D. Maszczynski238870
WJul 13 · 04:25M. Wolny4111811113D. Maszczynski26311841
WMay 18 · 18:00M. Wolny511171111113D. Maszczynski4251151382
M. Wolny10
WOct 5 · 06:00M. Wolny1.541112113M. Lamer2.1781090WOct 5 · 04:25M. Wolny1.848111111113J. Slawomir1.8611313812WOct 5 · 03:10M. Wolny1.36611124113W. Stechly2.91118101132LOct 2 · 04:40A. Zmijewski1.321811113M. Wolny3.2016460WOct 2 · 03:55A. Staniczek2.3581060M. Wolny1.501112113LOct 2 · 01:55M. Lewczuk1.4611119113M. Wolny2.55761141LOct 2 · 01:10M. Zielinski—1112113M. Wolny—91040LOct 1 · 23:30J. Michalik1.8591111133M. Wolny1.851177111LOct 1 · 22:40A. Zmijewski1.351111113M. Wolny2.957390WOct 1 · 21:55A. Staniczek2.807430M. Wolny1.361111113
D. Maszczynski10
WOct 5 · 06:25D. Maszczynski1.62116119113T. Kordaszewski2.1561151172WOct 5 · 04:50D. Maszczynski1.9311711113W. Stechly1.78711871WOct 5 · 04:00M. Lamer1.9581111722D. Maszczynski1.75117911113WOct 4 · 02:10D. Maszczynski3.25111316113M. Karpiuk1.33511111162WOct 4 · 00:35P. Gesiarz1.44111275102D. Maszczynski2.637101111123WOct 3 · 23:45D. Pyrek1.28911111132D. Maszczynski3.50111393113LOct 3 · 22:55D. Maszczynski5.006660A. Fomin1.141111113WOct 3 · 21:45D. Maszczynski4.0013138113G. Mucha1.2211111191LOct 3 · 20:05D. Maszczynski3.50111131192M. Karpiuk1.28137116113LOct 3 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.401112113D. Maszczynski2.7581090
Upcoming Matches
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