TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gesiarz vs Dariusz Maszczynski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11712107115111012
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:31 and never touched: 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Dariusz Maszczynski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 96 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Piotr Gesiarz at 68.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 36–19 Dariusz Maszczynski Dariusz Maszczynski has won 19 of their 55 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Gesiarz beat Maszczynski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:3168.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Gesiarz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
36-19 in 55
Gesiarz
Wrong
gap of 17 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1353 vs Maszczynski 1147
Gesiarz
Wrong
both rated, 205 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 40% vs Maszczynski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 50% vs Maszczynski 30%
Gesiarz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +1 · Maszczynski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Gesiarz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.444 / Maszczynski 2.625
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Gesiarz)-0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13239266
Gesiarz1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 74 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it95% 52 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it77% 64 of 83
Maszczynski2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog23% won 68 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back12% 24 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGesiarz7wins
AwayMaszczynski3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGesiarz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz85.7%6 of 7
AwayMaszczynski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz7Maszczynski3n = 10Gesiarz took 7 of 10
S2Gesiarz7Maszczynski3n = 10Gesiarz took 7 of 10
S3Gesiarz4Maszczynski6n = 10Maszczynski took 6 of 10
S4Gesiarz3Maszczynski3n = 6split evenly
S5Gesiarz3Maszczynski1n = 4Gesiarz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGesiarzMaszczynskiG − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.234.9+5.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 359 vs 104 / 47447.1%21.9%169 / 359 vs 104 / 474Avg sets wonper match1.91.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.333.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzGesiarz 1.44/Maszczynski 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maszczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 18:30P. Gesiarz341112113D. Maszczynski2781090
WSep 28 · 16:00P. Gesiarz49111278113D. Maszczynski41610111132
WSep 21 · 16:00P. Gesiarz331111113D. Maszczynski208750
LSep 20 · 00:35P. Gesiarz2812880D. Maszczynski361411113
WSep 19 · 18:30P. Gesiarz51121198113D. Maszczynski40106111122
LSep 14 · 16:00P. Gesiarz34115991D. Maszczynski4181111113
WSep 12 · 22:55P. Gesiarz50119612123D. Maszczynski519111110102
WSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz4291111113D. Maszczynski27115381
LSep 6 · 00:35P. Gesiarz48711711122D. Maszczynski48116116143
WSep 5 · 18:30P. Gesiarz331111113D. Maszczynski187560
P. Gesiarz10
LOct 4 · 01:45P. Gesiarz2.25651181G. Mucha1.5711111113WOct 3 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.9112117113M. Karpiuk1.801051151LOct 3 · 22:10D. Pyrek1.8381111113P. Gesiarz1.83119791LOct 3 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2.7571170A. Fomin1.401113113LOct 3 · 19:40P. Gesiarz1.839111161D. Pyrek1.8311134113WOct 3 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.401112113D. Maszczynski2.7581090LOct 3 · 17:20P. Gesiarz2.00111091192M. Karpiuk1.73912114113WOct 3 · 16:15G. Mucha1.57111113982P. Gesiarz2.25391511113LOct 3 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.63411681A. Fomin1.4411511113WSep 29 · 22:20A. Fomin1.4638100P. Gesiarz2.551111123
D. Maszczynski10
WOct 3 · 23:45D. Pyrek1.28911111132D. Maszczynski3.50111393113LOct 3 · 22:55D. Maszczynski5.006660A. Fomin1.141111113WOct 3 · 21:45D. Maszczynski4.0013138113G. Mucha1.2211111191LOct 3 · 20:05D. Maszczynski3.50111131192M. Karpiuk1.28137116113LOct 3 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.401112113D. Maszczynski2.7581090WOct 3 · 17:45G. Mucha1.22101111992D. Maszczynski4.00127911113LOct 3 · 16:55D. Maszczynski5.00111141162A. Fomin1.14139119113LOct 3 · 15:50D. Maszczynski3.50111011692D. Pyrek1.28612611113LSep 28 · 20:00J. Cyndera1.5291111113D. Maszczynski2.40118971LSep 28 · 19:10A. Kubiak1.4081111113D. Maszczynski2.70115571
Upcoming Matches
P. Gesiarz
Nothing scheduled
D. Maszczynski
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.