TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dariusz Maszczynski vs Mateusz Karpiuk 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151311111611116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:56 and never touched: 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDariusz Maszczynski above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 86 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 74.9%
86 points played in total.
H2H Dariusz Maszczynski 3–4 Mateusz Karpiuk Dariusz Maszczynski has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Karpiuk beat Maszczynski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:5674.9%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 0.1pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Karpiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maszczynski 1190 vs Karpiuk 1446
Karpiuk
Wrong
both rated, 256 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maszczynski 60% vs Karpiuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maszczynski 40% vs Karpiuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maszczynski +2 · Karpiuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Karpiuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaszczynski 3.25 / Karpiuk 1.333
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Karpiuk)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13239160
Maszczynski3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog23% won 68 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back12% 24 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 136
Karpiuk1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 65 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it71% 44 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMaszczynski3wins
AwayKarpiuk4wins
4 of 7 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaszczynski50%2 of 4
AwayKarpiuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maszczynski4Karpiuk3n = 7Maszczynski took 4 of 7
S2Maszczynski3Karpiuk4n = 7Karpiuk took 4 of 7
S3Maszczynski2Karpiuk5n = 7Karpiuk took 5 of 7
S4Maszczynski3Karpiuk3n = 6split evenly
S5Maszczynski2Karpiuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMaszczynskiKarpiukM − KBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match40.343.0−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaszczynskiKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 476 vs 158 / 34222.3%46.2%106 / 476 vs 158 / 342Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukMaszczynski 3.25/Karpiuk 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.9%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maszczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 4 · 02:10D. Maszczynski42111316113M. Karpiuk44511111162
LOct 3 · 20:05D. Maszczynski45111131192M. Karpiuk48137116113
LSep 7 · 20:00D. Maszczynski42116411102M. Karpiuk47511118123
WAug 9 · 00:10D. Maszczynski529111110113M. Karpiuk4911891292
LAug 8 · 20:30D. Maszczynski34117791M. Karpiuk4291111113
WJul 11 · 22:35D. Maszczynski4211812113M. Karpiuk388111091
LJul 11 · 15:00D. Maszczynski258890M. Karpiuk331111113
D. Maszczynski10
WOct 4 · 00:35P. Gesiarz1.44111275102D. Maszczynski2.637101111123WOct 3 · 23:45D. Pyrek1.28911111132D. Maszczynski3.50111393113LOct 3 · 22:55D. Maszczynski5.006660A. Fomin1.141111113WOct 3 · 21:45D. Maszczynski4.0013138113G. Mucha1.2211111191LOct 3 · 20:05D. Maszczynski3.50111131192M. Karpiuk1.28137116113LOct 3 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.401112113D. Maszczynski2.7581090WOct 3 · 17:45G. Mucha1.22101111992D. Maszczynski4.00127911113LOct 3 · 16:55D. Maszczynski5.00111141162A. Fomin1.14139119113LOct 3 · 15:50D. Maszczynski3.50111011692D. Pyrek1.28612611113LSep 28 · 20:00J. Cyndera1.5291111113D. Maszczynski2.40118971
M. Karpiuk10
WOct 4 · 01:25A. Fomin1.838111491M. Karpiuk1.8311616113LOct 3 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.9112117113M. Karpiuk1.801051151LOct 3 · 22:35G. Mucha1.80111179113M. Karpiuk1.9197111152WOct 3 · 21:00D. Pyrek2.5010830M. Karpiuk1.501211113WOct 3 · 20:05D. Maszczynski3.50111131192M. Karpiuk1.28137116113LOct 3 · 19:20A. Fomin1.83117119113M. Karpiuk1.8361161192WOct 3 · 17:20P. Gesiarz2.00111091192M. Karpiuk1.73912114113LOct 3 · 16:35D. Pyrek2.50133119113M. Karpiuk1.50111181182LOct 3 · 15:00G. Mucha1.67411117113M. Karpiuk2.1011971162WSep 25 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski1.83116611102M. Karpiuk1.83711116123
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