TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Lamer vs Dariusz Maszczynski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Maciej Lamer
Home
1.95
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811117119711211
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:55 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDariusz Maszczynski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
811117119711211
H2H Maciej Lamer 1–1 Dariusz Maszczynski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:5554.0%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
short by 3.1pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Maszczynski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lamer 1156 vs Maszczynski 1169
Maszczynski
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lamer 0% vs Maszczynski 80%
Maszczynski
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lamer 10% vs Maszczynski 50%
Maszczynski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lamer -5 · Maszczynski +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Maszczynski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maszczynski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLamer 1.95 / Maszczynski 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maszczynski)-3.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243786
Lamer1.95
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 117 days ago (Jun 10) · back after a break
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 25 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back11% 7 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Maszczynski1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 04)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 8 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeLamer1wins
AwayMaszczynski1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricLamerMaszczynskiL − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match35.045.0−10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLamerMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 630 vs 106 / 47627.6%22.3%174 / 630 vs 106 / 476Avg sets wonper match1.41.3per matchAvg pointsper match33.033.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaszczynskiLamer 1.95/Maszczynski 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maszczynski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maszczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WApr 6 · 08:45M. Lamer40131132113D. Maszczynski50119111182
LNov 10 · 17:00M. Lamer30851161D. Maszczynski4011117113
M. Lamer10
LJun 10 · 04:40K. Delikatny1.281111113M. Lamer3.204870LJun 10 · 03:55A. Barton1.731111711113M. Lamer1.9513911882LJun 10 · 01:55Z. Nocun1.1761111113M. Lamer4.25117941LJun 10 · 01:10M. Brunner1.281111113M. Lamer3.258670LJun 9 · 23:30P. Chojnacki1.46111110113M. Lamer2.47691251WJun 9 · 22:40K. Delikatny1.40581181M. Lamer2.7511119113LJun 9 · 21:55A. Barton1.831111113M. Lamer1.866670LJun 9 · 19:55Z. Nocun1.2111135113M. Lamer3.758111181LJun 9 · 19:10P. Chojnacki1.801111123M. Lamer1.8555100LJun 9 · 17:30M. Brunner1.251111133M. Lamer3.4037110
D. Maszczynski10
WOct 4 · 02:10D. Maszczynski3.25111316113M. Karpiuk1.33511111162WOct 4 · 00:35P. Gesiarz1.44111275102D. Maszczynski2.637101111123WOct 3 · 23:45D. Pyrek1.28911111132D. Maszczynski3.50111393113LOct 3 · 22:55D. Maszczynski5.006660A. Fomin1.141111113WOct 3 · 21:45D. Maszczynski4.0013138113G. Mucha1.2211111191LOct 3 · 20:05D. Maszczynski3.50111131192M. Karpiuk1.28137116113LOct 3 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.401112113D. Maszczynski2.7581090WOct 3 · 17:45G. Mucha1.22101111992D. Maszczynski4.00127911113LOct 3 · 16:55D. Maszczynski5.00111141162A. Fomin1.14139119113LOct 3 · 15:50D. Maszczynski3.50111011692D. Pyrek1.28612611113
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