TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dariusz Maszczynski vs Witold Stechly 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117711118117––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:45 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeWitold Stechly to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
117711118117––
H2H Dariusz Maszczynski 4–8 Witold Stechly Dariusz Maszczynski has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:4554.0%Our read56.2%to break even at 1.78
short by 2.2pp56.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.78 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Stechly
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Stechly
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maszczynski 1182 vs Stechly 1075
Maszczynski
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maszczynski 80% vs Stechly 20%
Maszczynski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maszczynski 60% vs Stechly 20%
Maszczynski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maszczynski +4 · Stechly -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stechly) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stechly form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaszczynski 1.93 / Stechly 1.78
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stechly)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13246623
Maszczynski1.93
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog23% won 70 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back12% 25 of 206
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 139
Stechly1.78
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite40% won 4 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it40% 2 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaszczynski4wins
AwayStechly6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStechly leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaszczynski50%3 of 6
AwayStechly75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maszczynski6Stechly4n = 10Maszczynski took 6 of 10
S2Maszczynski6Stechly4n = 10Maszczynski took 6 of 10
S3Maszczynski2Stechly8n = 10Stechly took 8 of 10
S4Maszczynski5Stechly3n = 8Maszczynski took 5 of 8
S5Maszczynski2Stechly4n = 6Stechly took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaszczynskiStechlyM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.141.3−1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaszczynskiStechlyBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 477 vs 96 / 53622.4%17.9%107 / 477 vs 96 / 536Avg sets wonper match1.31.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.633.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StechlyMaszczynski 1.93/Stechly 1.78
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stechly · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maszczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 09:10D. Maszczynski4191191112W. Stechly49117119113
LSep 14 · 09:10D. Maszczynski531110151162W. Stechly54612178113
WAug 31 · 09:10D. Maszczynski4071111113W. Stechly34118781
LAug 10 · 07:10D. Maszczynski4411951182W. Stechly43311117113
LAug 3 · 05:35D. Maszczynski311011371W. Stechly4112711113
LJul 27 · 07:10D. Maszczynski4311116782W. Stechly47771111113
WJul 20 · 06:45D. Maszczynski47111177113W. Stechly4485111192
LJul 13 · 05:35D. Maszczynski168080W. Stechly331111113
WJun 29 · 04:50D. Maszczynski341111123W. Stechly2165100
WJun 22 · 06:25D. Maszczynski521110911113W. Stechly4781211972
D. Maszczynski10
WOct 5 · 04:00M. Lamer1.9581111722D. Maszczynski1.75117911113WOct 4 · 02:10D. Maszczynski3.25111316113M. Karpiuk1.33511111162WOct 4 · 00:35P. Gesiarz1.44111275102D. Maszczynski2.637101111123WOct 3 · 23:45D. Pyrek1.28911111132D. Maszczynski3.50111393113LOct 3 · 22:55D. Maszczynski5.006660A. Fomin1.141111113WOct 3 · 21:45D. Maszczynski4.0013138113G. Mucha1.2211111191LOct 3 · 20:05D. Maszczynski3.50111131192M. Karpiuk1.28137116113LOct 3 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.401112113D. Maszczynski2.7581090WOct 3 · 17:45G. Mucha1.22101111992D. Maszczynski4.00127911113LOct 3 · 16:55D. Maszczynski5.00111141162A. Fomin1.14139119113
W. Stechly10
LOct 5 · 03:10M. Wolny1.36611124113W. Stechly2.91118101132LOct 1 · 04:20W. Stechly2.3081171152J. Michalik1.56115113113LOct 1 · 03:05W. Stechly—5590M. Zielinski—1111113LOct 1 · 01:55W. Stechly4.8561090J. Zelezik1.141112113WOct 1 · 00:45A. Fomin1.4541131492W. Stechly2.581131112113LSep 30 · 23:55W. Stechly3.759230A. Staniczek1.241111113LSep 28 · 08:20W. Stechly1.6011117592M. Wolny2.22581111113LSep 28 · 06:45J. Slawomir1.2611611113W. Stechly3.51711911WSep 28 · 06:00T. Kordaszewski2.401115512112W. Stechly1.506131114133LSep 28 · 05:10W. Stechly6.1810119161A. Fomin1.0912511183
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