TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Witold Stechly vs Adam Staniczek 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911211311––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:50 and never touched: 71.8% is still 71.8%
Graded at full timeAdam Staniczek to win
71.8%
71.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
47 points played in total.
Set by set
911211311––––
H2H Witold Stechly 2–12 Adam Staniczek Witold Stechly has won 2 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5071.8%Our read80.6%to break even at 1.24
short by 8.8pp80.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.24 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.24 (75%)
Staniczek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-12 in 14
Staniczek
Correct
gap of 10 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stechly 1093 vs Staniczek 1295
Staniczek
Correct
both rated, 202 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stechly 20% vs Staniczek 40%
Staniczek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stechly 10% vs Staniczek 50%
Staniczek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stechly -2 · Staniczek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Staniczek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (40%) is below what odds imply (81%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStechly 3.75 / Staniczek 1.24
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Staniczek)-8.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13216748
Stechly3.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog20% won 47 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back12% 19 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 103
Staniczek1.24
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite76% won 95 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it98% 52 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it90% 71 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStechly1wins
AwayStaniczek9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStaniczek leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStechly25%1 of 4
AwayStaniczek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stechly4Staniczek6n = 10Staniczek took 6 of 10
S2Stechly1Staniczek9n = 10Staniczek took 9 of 10
S3Stechly3Staniczek7n = 10Staniczek took 7 of 10
S4Stechly1Staniczek5n = 6Staniczek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricStechlyStaniczekStechly − StaniczekBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.039.6−9.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStechlyStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 535 vs 366 / 100317.8%36.5%95 / 535 vs 366 / 1003Avg sets wonper match1.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match33.634.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaniczekStechly 3.75/Staniczek 1.24
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.8%
Staniczek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 23:55W. Stechly301151041A. Staniczek4171112113
WSep 10 · 00:45W. Stechly5511178193A. Staniczek5181511171
LSep 2 · 23:55W. Stechly39981481A. Staniczek45111112113
LAug 27 · 22:40W. Stechly471110115102A. Staniczek45812211123
LAug 14 · 00:45W. Stechly334811101A. Staniczek4211118123
LAug 7 · 05:05W. Stechly188370A. Staniczek331111113
LJul 24 · 05:05W. Stechly26117531A. Staniczek4071111113
LMay 21 · 05:05W. Stechly186750A. Staniczek331111113
LJan 23 · 01:45W. Stechly188550A. Staniczek331111113
LJan 16 · 03:20W. Stechly167540A. Staniczek331111113
W. Stechly10
LSep 28 · 08:20W. Stechly1.6011117592M. Wolny2.22581111113LSep 28 · 06:45J. Slawomir1.2611611113W. Stechly3.51711911WSep 28 · 06:00T. Kordaszewski2.401115512112W. Stechly1.506131114133LSep 28 · 05:10W. Stechly6.1810119161A. Fomin1.0912511183LSep 28 · 04:00W. Stechly1.761191111142M. Machelski1.97711913163LSep 24 · 04:20W. Stechly9.2551171252M. Warzecha1.051171110113LSep 24 · 03:05W. Stechly4.038715111M. Karpiuk1.20111113133LSep 24 · 01:55W. Stechly6.256780J. Zelezik1.081111113LSep 24 · 00:45H. Tkaczyk1.051113113W. Stechly7.5091150LSep 23 · 23:55W. Stechly4.201111391K. Kwiatkowski1.1813911113
A. Staniczek10
WSep 30 · 23:05J. Michalik1.4312580A. Staniczek2.431411113LSep 30 · 21:55A. Staniczek3.40111243112J. Zelezik1.259101111133LSep 30 · 20:45A. Fomin1.281111113A. Staniczek3.403770WSep 30 · 19:30M. Zielinski—139111172A. Staniczek—151188113LSep 30 · 17:55J. Slawomir1.571111113A. Staniczek2.254960WSep 29 · 02:45J. Michalik1.7461311292A. Staniczek1.991111311113LSep 29 · 01:35A. Staniczek4.208660J. Zelezik1.181111113WSep 29 · 00:25A. Kubiak1.25811681A. Staniczek3.5011911113WSep 28 · 23:10M. Machelski1.90611471A. Staniczek1.8211711113WSep 28 · 21:35J. Cyndera1.915111211132A. Staniczek1.80118146153
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