TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Witold Stechly vs Mateusz Karpiuk 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Witold Stechly
Home
4.03
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81171115131113––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
81171115131113––
H2H Witold Stechly 1–1 Mateusz Karpiuk Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (77%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stechly 1119 vs Karpiuk 1442
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 323 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stechly 20% vs Karpiuk 40%
Karpiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stechly 30% vs Karpiuk 50%
Karpiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stechly -3 · Karpiuk +1
Stechly
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStechly 4.03 / Karpiuk 1.20
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Karpiuk)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13187457
Stechly4.03
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog20% won 47 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back12% 19 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 105
Karpiuk1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 60 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it70% 40 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStechly1wins
AwayKarpiuk1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricStechlyKarpiukS − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match28.534.5−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStechlyKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 538 vs 148 / 32217.5%46%94 / 538 vs 148 / 322Avg sets wonper match1.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukStechly 4.03/Karpiuk 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.9%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 14 · 05:05W. Stechly3521111113M. Karpiuk36118891
LAug 13 · 01:55W. Stechly229940M. Karpiuk331111113
W. Stechly10
LSep 24 · 01:55W. Stechly6.256780J. Zelezik1.081111113LSep 24 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.051113113W. Stechly7.5091150LSep 23 · 23:55W. Stechly4.201111391K. Kwiatkowski1.1813911113WSep 21 · 09:10W. Stechly2.05117119113D. Maszczynski1.6691191112LSep 21 · 07:50W. Stechly4.501191312102J. Slawomir1.109111114123WSep 21 · 06:50W. Stechly1.4411116113T. Kordaszewski2.60271161LSep 21 · 05:30W. Stechly1.681031191A. Barton1.8712117113LSep 21 · 04:10W. Stechly5.751111891H. Tkaczyk1.0591311113LSep 21 · 03:10W. Stechly3.65111148102J. Michalik1.17791111123WSep 17 · 04:20W. Stechly5.8511118113M. Warzecha1.08991191
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 24 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.9381181162M. Karpiuk1.78118112113LSep 24 · 01:30M. Karpiuk2.1511871492K. Kwiatkowski1.625111112113LSep 24 · 24:20M. Karpiuk2.801211221M. Warzecha1.3714811113LSep 23 · 22:40M. Karpiuk1.90118112112J. Zelezik1.81711611133WSep 23 · 21:05J. Slawomir1.6061030M. Karpiuk2.101112113LSep 23 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.32111110113M. Karpiuk2.70981231WSep 23 · 19:30M. Karpiuk1.65111420113K. Kwiatkowski2.056122251WSep 23 · 18:20M. Karpiuk3.601211711113H. Tkaczyk1.2214511332WSep 23 · 05:05J. Michalik1.989812101M. Karpiuk1.73111110123LSep 23 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.80119119102M. Baran1.92911811123
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