TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Henryk Tkaczyk vs Mateusz Karpiuk 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.93
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118811112611
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
1.78
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
811118811112611
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 17–4 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 4 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Karpiuk beat Tkaczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkaczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.93 / Karpiuk 1.78
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+6.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13187419
Tkaczyk1.93
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 61 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back33% 17 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Karpiuk1.78
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 60 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it70% 40 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk9wins
AwayKarpiuk1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk88.9%8 of 9
AwayKarpiukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk9Karpiuk1n = 10Tkaczyk took 9 of 10
S2Tkaczyk5Karpiuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Tkaczyk8Karpiuk2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S4Tkaczyk5Karpiuk2n = 7Tkaczyk took 5 of 7
S5Tkaczyk2Karpiuk1n = 3Tkaczyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykKarpiukT − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.833.8+7.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime1020 / 1508 vs 147 / 32167.6%45.8%1020 / 1508 vs 147 / 321Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.93/Karpiuk 1.78
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk3614511332M. Karpiuk521211711113
WAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk4111811113M. Karpiuk28511751
WAug 31 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk4211911113M. Karpiuk31511961
WAug 24 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk4211911113M. Karpiuk28411491
WAug 23 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk361411113M. Karpiuk2912980
WAug 20 · 03:55H. Tkaczyk331111113M. Karpiuk228860
WAug 19 · 21:55H. Tkaczyk49111179113M. Karpiuk4193111172
WAug 10 · 21:00H. Tkaczyk4261114113M. Karpiuk321171221
WAug 10 · 16:35H. Tkaczyk46117611113M. Karpiuk4471111962
WJul 21 · 01:10H. Tkaczyk411311173M. Karpiuk31115150
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 24 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.688960M. Warzecha2.051111113WSep 24 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.051113113W. Stechly7.5091150WSep 23 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.84101311113J. Zelezik1.871211541LSep 23 · 22:20J. Slawomir2.905111011113H. Tkaczyk1.3511812892LSep 23 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.8751111113H. Tkaczyk1.83114721LSep 23 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.9611881192K. Kwiatkowski1.76711118113LSep 23 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.54511381J. Zelezik2.2511411113LSep 23 · 18:20M. Karpiuk3.601211711113H. Tkaczyk1.2214511332WSep 21 · 09:30J. Slawomir2.4011611962H. Tkaczyk1.50911711113WSep 21 · 08:30A. Barton2.85115951H. Tkaczyk1.3571111113
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 24 · 03:05W. Stechly4.038715111M. Karpiuk1.20111113133LSep 24 · 01:30M. Karpiuk2.1511871492K. Kwiatkowski1.625111112113LSep 24 · 24:20M. Karpiuk2.801211221M. Warzecha1.3714811113LSep 23 · 22:40M. Karpiuk1.90118112112J. Zelezik1.81711611133WSep 23 · 21:05J. Slawomir1.6061030M. Karpiuk2.101112113LSep 23 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.32111110113M. Karpiuk2.70981231WSep 23 · 19:30M. Karpiuk1.65111420113K. Kwiatkowski2.056122251WSep 23 · 18:20M. Karpiuk3.601211711113H. Tkaczyk1.2214511332WSep 23 · 05:05J. Michalik1.989812101M. Karpiuk1.73111110123LSep 23 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.80119119102M. Baran1.92911811123
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