TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Miroslaw Warzecha vs Mateusz Karpiuk 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Miroslaw Warzecha
Home
1.32
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191181012113––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.70
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:14 and never touched — 67.8% is still 67.8%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Warzecha to win
67.8%
67.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
1191181012113––
H2H Miroslaw Warzecha 7–1 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.32 (67%)
Warzecha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Warzecha
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Warzecha 1507 vs Karpiuk 1459
Warzecha
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Warzecha 100% vs Karpiuk 80%
Warzecha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Warzecha 100% vs Karpiuk 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Warzecha +10 · Karpiuk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Warzecha) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (37%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWarzecha 1.32 / Karpiuk 2.70
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Warzecha)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13185628
Warzecha1.32
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 353 of 485
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it89% 263 of 296
Karpiuk2.70
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 67 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back24% 22 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeWarzecha7wins
AwayKarpiuk1wins
4 of 8 to a deciderWarzecha leads 7–1, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWarzecha83.3%5 of 6
AwayKarpiukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Warzecha6Karpiuk2n = 8Warzecha took 6 of 8
S2Warzecha6Karpiuk2n = 8Warzecha took 6 of 8
S3Warzecha5Karpiuk3n = 8Warzecha took 5 of 8
S4Warzecha3Karpiuk3n = 6split evenly
S5Warzecha3Karpiuk1n = 4Warzecha took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricWarzechaKarpiukW − KBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match42.835.9+6.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWarzechaKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime846 / 1202 vs 146 / 31670.4%46.2%846 / 1202 vs 146 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WarzechaWarzecha 1.32/Karpiuk 2.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.6%
Warzecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Warzecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 8 · 02:00M. Warzecha4212118113M. Karpiuk361081171
WSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha331111113M. Karpiuk183960
WAug 20 · 01:10M. Warzecha331111113M. Karpiuk229850
LAug 19 · 17:30M. Warzecha46111171072M. Karpiuk50971112113
WAug 13 · 01:10M. Warzecha3821114113M. Karpiuk271131211
WAug 12 · 17:30M. Warzecha47671211113M. Karpiuk49111110892
WAug 11 · 01:50M. Warzecha54139119123M. Karpiuk501111711102
WAug 10 · 18:10M. Warzecha491111610113M. Karpiuk3534111252
M. Warzecha10
WSep 23 · 18:45M. Warzecha1.40111111113J. Slawomir2.65139841WSep 23 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.4011612113J. Zelezik2.759111091WSep 22 · 02:00J. Cyndera2.409850M. Warzecha1.501111113WSep 22 · 01:10M. Machelski3.40117681M. Warzecha1.2891111113WSep 22 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.2611914113A. Staniczek3.504111261WSep 21 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.541111113A. Kubiak2.256580WSep 21 · 22:00J. Michalik2.75105111172M. Warzecha1.40121159113WSep 21 · 20:45M. Warzecha1.271111113A. Staniczek3.306540WSep 21 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.181111113D. Maszczynski4.258740WSep 21 · 18:00M. Warzecha1.5581111113P. Gesiarz2.25113891
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 23 · 21:05J. Slawomir1.6061030M. Karpiuk2.101112113WSep 23 · 19:30M. Karpiuk1.65111420113K. Kwiatkowski2.056122251WSep 23 · 18:20M. Karpiuk3.601211711113H. Tkaczyk1.2214511332WSep 23 · 05:05J. Michalik1.989812101M. Karpiuk1.73111110123LSep 23 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.80119119102M. Baran1.92911811123WSep 23 · 02:45M. Brunner2.05611791M. Karpiuk1.5611611113WSep 23 · 01:30K. Delikatny2.0091180M. Karpiuk1.711113113WSep 22 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.49310130M. Karpiuk2.501112153WSep 22 · 23:05M. Brunner2.05711491M. Karpiuk1.6511411113WSep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.001112117113M. Baran1.71131091142
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