Dominik Bartosik vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Dominik Bartosik

Home

1.90

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

4115111181412119

Zbigniew Nocun

Away

1.76

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Zbigniew Nocun to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingDominik Bartosik above · Zbigniew Nocun below

Set 1 · 4-11

Set 2 · 5-11

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 14-12

Set 5 · 11-9

Point 96 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 54.0%

96 points played in total.

H2H Dominik Bartosik 1–0 Zbigniew Nocun Zbigniew Nocun has won 0 of their 1 meetings.

Last 1 · 1–0Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Nocun

Bartosik 1.90/Nocun 1.76

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Nocun · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Bartosik won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 20:57

54.0%Our read56.8%to break even at 1.76

short by 2.8pp

56.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.76 they are the same number)

What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.76 (52%)

Nocun

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

1-0 in 1

—

Too close

1 played, under the floor of 3

Rating (G2)

Bartosik 1355 vs Nocun 1326

Bartosik

Correct

both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Bartosik 40% vs Nocun 20%

Bartosik

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Bartosik 50% vs Nocun 20%

Bartosik

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Bartosik -2 · Nocun +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Nocun: form 20%, the price implies 57%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBartosik 1.90 / Nocun 1.76

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Nocun)-2.8pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 4h before this match

Bartosik beat Nocun 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 1 meeting

HomeBartosik1wins

AwayNocun0wins

Bartosik leads 1–0.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed

3–0Straight, home1

3–1Four sets, home0

3–2Decider, home0

2–3Decider, away0

1–3Four sets, away0

0–3Straight, away0

This 1 meeting

MetricBartosikNocunB − NBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.024.0+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBartosikNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime12 / 25 vs 732 / 123448%59.3%12 / 25 vs 732 / 1234Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.4per match

TT Elite Series · #13285357

Bartosik1.90

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Nocun1.76

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

10%takes the first set · 1 of 10

As favourite66% won 332 of 506

Up 2–0, closes it94% 163 of 173

Up 1–0, closes it85% 238 of 279

Dominik Bartosik vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Dominik Bartosik vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.