Miroslaw Lewczuk vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Miroslaw Lewczuk

Home

2.50

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1171181012211117

Zbigniew Nocun

Away

1.50

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:50 and never touched: 61.5% is still 61.5%

Graded at full time

Zbigniew Nocun to win

61.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Zbigniew Nocun below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 10-12

Set 4 · 2-11

Set 5 · 11-7

Point 90 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 61.5%

90 points played in total.

H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 20–44 Zbigniew Nocun Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 20 of their 64 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Nocun

Lewczuk 2.50/Nocun 1.50

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

61.5%

Nocun · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Lewczuk won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:50

61.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 5.2pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Nocun

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

20-44 in 64

Nocun

Wrong

gap of 24 in 64, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Lewczuk 1397 vs Nocun 1350

Lewczuk

Correct

both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Lewczuk 60% vs Nocun 20%

Lewczuk

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Lewczuk 70% vs Nocun 20%

Lewczuk

Correct

50pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Lewczuk +2 · Nocun -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Nocun) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Nocun: form 20%, the price implies 67%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsLewczuk 2.50 / Nocun 1.50

Signal prob.39% / 62%

Edge (Nocun)-5.2pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeLewczuk3wins

AwayNocun7wins

3 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeLewczuk50%3 of 6

AwayNocun100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Lewczuk6Nocun4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10

S2Lewczuk3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10

S3Lewczuk1Nocun9n = 10Nocun took 9 of 10

S4Lewczuk2Nocun5n = 7Nocun took 5 of 7

S5Lewczuk2Nocun1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricLewczukNocunL − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.939.2−5.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricLewczukNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime510 / 997 vs 731 / 122951.2%59.5%510 / 997 vs 731 / 1229Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.5per match

TT Elite Series · #13279549

Lewczuk2.50

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 11)

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog36% won 72 of 201

Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 120

Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75

Nocun1.50

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 09)

oldest → newest

10%takes the first set · 1 of 10

As favourite66% won 332 of 506

Up 2–0, closes it94% 163 of 173

Up 1–0, closes it85% 238 of 279

Miroslaw Lewczuk vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Miroslaw Lewczuk vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.