TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Andrzej Szurgot vs Miroslaw Lewczuk 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5117111181210113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:44 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrzej Szurgot above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 89 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 79.4%
89 points played in total.
H2H Andrzej Szurgot 0–3 Miroslaw Lewczuk Andrzej Szurgot has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Lewczuk beat Szurgot 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4479.4%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 2.4pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Lewczuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Lewczuk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szurgot 1170 vs Lewczuk 1393
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 223 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szurgot 60% vs Lewczuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szurgot 50% vs Lewczuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szurgot +1 · Lewczuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Lewczuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzurgot 4.00 / Lewczuk 1.222
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Lewczuk)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13274521
Szurgot4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog19% won 25 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back11% 10 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 68
Lewczuk1.22
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 181 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it97% 118 of 122
Up 1–0, closes it83% 141 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSzurgot0wins
AwayLewczuk3wins
Lewczuk leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzurgotn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayLewczuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szurgot0Lewczuk3n = 3Lewczuk took 3 of 3
S2Szurgot0Lewczuk3n = 3Lewczuk took 3 of 3
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSzurgotLewczukS − LBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match30.042.0−12.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzurgotLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime35 / 157 vs 508 / 99422.3%51.1%35 / 157 vs 508 / 994Avg sets wonper match1.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match31.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukSzurgot 4.00/Lewczuk 1.22
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szurgot won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 28 · 01:45A. Szurgot26641331M. Lewczuk44111111113
LSep 27 · 16:15A. Szurgot34891161M. Lewczuk4011117113
A. Szurgot10
WOct 10 · 22:10A. Szurgot1.501111113D. Maszczynski2.355570LOct 10 · 21:00A. Szurgot3.5010850A. Fomin1.261211113WOct 10 · 19:40D. Maszczynski1.916360A. Szurgot1.801111113LOct 10 · 18:55P. Gesiarz1.4011118113A. Szurgot2.75781121WOct 10 · 18:10A. Szurgot2.50911137113D. Pyrek1.50119111172WOct 10 · 16:35A. Szurgot4.3311611113A. Fomin1.20311531LOct 10 · 15:50M. Lewczuk1.221111113A. Szurgot4.009590LOct 5 · 02:10G. Mucha1.301116113A. Szurgot3.4081490LOct 5 · 01:25A. Staniczek1.171211113A. Szurgot4.5010990WOct 4 · 23:20Z. Nocun1.07101181192A. Szurgot7.50126118113
M. Lewczuk10
WOct 11 · 00:35D. Maszczynski4.002490M. Lewczuk1.221111113WOct 10 · 22:55M. Lewczuk1.73115119113D. Pyrek2.0071151192LOct 10 · 21:45M. Lewczuk1.53871191P. Gesiarz2.3811117113LOct 10 · 20:05M. Lewczuk2.639940A. Fomin1.441111113WOct 10 · 18:30D. Maszczynski3.757690M. Lewczuk1.251111113WOct 10 · 17:45P. Gesiarz2.38117561M. Lewczuk1.5381111113WOct 10 · 16:55M. Lewczuk1.7381111113D. Pyrek2.00115531WOct 10 · 15:50M. Lewczuk1.221111113A. Szurgot4.009590LOct 8 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.502340J. Zelezik1.501111113LOct 8 · 00:35M. Lewczuk1.9168111182J. Michalik1.80111166113
Upcoming Matches
A. Szurgot
Oct 11 · 02:35A. Szurgot1.83D. Pyrek1.83—Oct 11 · 15:00A. Szurgot—M. Kumor——Oct 11 · 16:15A. Szurgot—K. Kwiatkowski——Oct 11 · 17:45A. Szurgot—G. Mucha——Oct 11 · 18:55A. Szurgot—A. Kubiak——Oct 11 · 20:30A. Szurgot—A. Fomin——Oct 11 · 21:45A. Szurgot—G. Mucha——Oct 11 · 22:35A. Szurgot—M. Kumor——Oct 12 · 00:10A. Szurgot—A. Fomin——Oct 12 · 01:00A. Szurgot—A. Kubiak——
M. Lewczuk
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