Jacek Zelezik vs Andrzej Krezel 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Jacek Zelezik

Home

1.44

At publish

Won last 8

Form at publish

9–1Last 10Won last 8

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

81112101311711119

Andrzej Krezel

Away

2.63

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%

Graded at full time

Jacek Zelezik to win

67.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Andrzej Krezel below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 12-10

Set 3 · 13-11

Set 4 · 7-11

Set 5 · 11-9

Point 103 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Jacek Zelezik at 67.7%

103 points played in total.

H2H Jacek Zelezik 8–5 Andrzej Krezel Andrzej Krezel has won 5 of their 13 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Zelezik

Zelezik 1.44/Krezel 2.63

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

67.7%

Zelezik · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Zelezik won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 21:18

67.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444

short by 1.6pp

69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)

What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (65%)

Zelezik

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

8-5 in 13

Zelezik

Correct

gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Zelezik 1658 vs Krezel 1421

Zelezik

Correct

both rated, 237 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Zelezik 100% vs Krezel 60%

Zelezik

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Zelezik 90% vs Krezel 40%

Zelezik

Correct

50pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Zelezik +8 · Krezel +2

Zelezik

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Zelezik) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Krezel: form 60%, the price implies 38%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsZelezik 1.444 / Krezel 2.625

Signal prob.68% / 32%

Edge (Zelezik)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 6h before this match

Zelezik beat Krezel 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeZelezik6wins

AwayKrezel4wins

3 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeZelezik66.7%4 of 6

AwayKrezel50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Zelezik6Krezel4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10

S2Zelezik5Krezel5n = 10split evenly

S3Zelezik6Krezel4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10

S4Zelezik2Krezel4n = 6Krezel took 4 of 6

S5Zelezik2Krezel1n = 3Zelezik took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricZelezikKrezelZ − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.434.7−1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricZelezikKrezelBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 773 vs 126 / 31556.4%40%436 / 773 vs 126 / 315Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.3per match

TT Elite Series · #13284134

Zelezik1.44

90%won 9 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 8

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite72% won 209 of 289

Up 2–0, closes it96% 123 of 128

Up 1–0, closes it83% 159 of 192

Krezel2.63

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog33% won 68 of 205

Down 0–1, comes back14% 17 of 118

Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75

Jacek Zelezik vs Andrzej Krezel 3-2 · TT Elite Series

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jacek Zelezik vs Andrzej Krezel 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.