Jiri Jira vs Vladimir Kubat 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Jiri Jira

Home

1.91

At publish

Won last 5

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 5

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

811116119116––

Vladimir Kubat

Away

1.80

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Vladimir Kubat to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJiri Jira above · Vladimir Kubat below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 11-6

Point 73 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Vladimir Kubat at 54.0%

73 points played in total.

H2H Jiri Jira 12–13 Vladimir Kubat Jiri Jira has won 12 of their 25 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kubat

Jira 1.91/Kubat 1.80

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Kubat · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Jira won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:25

54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.6pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Kubat

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

12-13 in 25

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Jira 1011 vs Kubat 984

Jira

Correct

both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Jira 100% vs Kubat 40%

Jira

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Jira 50% vs Kubat 20%

Jira

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Jira +5 · Kubat +2

Jira

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kubat) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kubat: form 40%, the price implies 56%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsJira 1.909 / Kubat 1.80

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Kubat)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 4h before this match

Jira beat Kubat 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeJira4wins

AwayKubat6wins

1 of 10 to a deciderKubat leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeJira100%3 of 3

AwayKubat85.7%6 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Jira3Kubat7n = 10Kubat took 7 of 10

S2Jira4Kubat6n = 10Kubat took 6 of 10

S3Jira3Kubat7n = 10Kubat took 7 of 10

S4Jira3Kubat3n = 6split evenly

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away440%

These 10 meetings

MetricJiraKubatJ − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.236.9−5.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricJiraKubatBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 142 vs 106 / 26441.6%40.2%59 / 142 vs 106 / 264Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.335.2per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13283643

Jira1.91

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 5

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog35% won 7 of 20

Down 0–1, comes back9% 1 of 11

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8

Kubat1.80

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite61% won 19 of 31

Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9

Up 1–0, closes it100% 15 of 15

Jiri Jira vs Vladimir Kubat 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jiri Jira vs Vladimir Kubat 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.