TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Kubat vs Jiri Koch 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111199111113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:09 and never touched: 68.0% is still 68.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Kubat to win
68.0%
68.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jiri Koch @ 2.62 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingVladimir Kubat above · Jiri Koch below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 83 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Vladimir Kubat at 68.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Kubat 11–2 Jiri Koch Jiri Koch has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 08:09Sent to Pro: Jiri Koch @ 2.62 · Won
68.0%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.3pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kubat
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-2 in 13
Kubat
Wrong
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 980 vs Koch 1011
Koch
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 0% vs Koch 60%
Koch
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 30% vs Koch 50%
Koch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat -6 · Koch +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Kubat) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koch form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 1.444 / Koch 2.625
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Kubat)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269291
Kubat1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 19 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Koch2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog24% won 11 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubat8wins
AwayKoch2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKubat leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubat100%6 of 6
AwayKoch50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat6Koch4n = 10Kubat took 6 of 10
S2Kubat5Koch5n = 10split evenly
S3Kubat7Koch3n = 10Kubat took 7 of 10
S4Kubat6Koch2n = 8Kubat took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubatKochKubat − KochBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.132.5+8.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatKochBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 260 vs 35 / 9240%38%104 / 260 vs 35 / 92Avg sets wonper match1.71.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.235.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KochKubat 1.44/Koch 2.63
Hit
What we said
68%
Kubat · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jiri Koch @ 2.62 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
1–3
Koch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 08:30V. Kubat398119111J. Koch4411911133
WSep 25 · 07:30V. Kubat4291111113J. Koch32118671
LSep 17 · 12:00V. Kubat34871181J. Koch4111118113
WSep 16 · 08:30V. Kubat351311113J. Koch1811520
WAug 18 · 09:00V. Kubat5811111311123J. Koch49913152102
WAug 18 · 06:30V. Kubat4071111113J. Koch32117591
WJul 8 · 09:00V. Kubat331111113J. Koch177910
WJul 8 · 08:30V. Kubat3711411113J. Koch30811651
WJun 18 · 08:59V. Kubat511111711113J. Koch4061311552
WJun 18 · 08:30V. Kubat4211911113J. Koch22411161
V. Kubat10
LOct 10 · 09:08P. Petr1.551111113V. Kubat2.305740LOct 10 · 07:00V. Kubat1.61611471P. Potmesil2.2011711113LOct 10 · 06:00P. Petr1.731111113V. Kubat2.008660LOct 6 · 13:01C. Havrda1.83911811113V. Kubat1.8311911382LOct 6 · 12:30V. Kubat2.00481191J. Strnad1.7311116113LOct 6 · 11:00V. Kubat1.448990P. Potmesil2.631111113LOct 6 · 10:00C. Havrda1.50111011123V. Kubat2.508123101WSep 25 · 09:30P. Petr1.53119691V. Kubat2.3831111113LSep 25 · 08:30P. Petr1.8091111113V. Kubat1.91117751WSep 25 · 07:30V. Kubat1.4091111113J. Koch2.75118671
J. Koch10
LOct 10 · 09:28J. Koch2.105111281P. Potmesil1.6711614113WOct 10 · 07:30J. Koch2.38711145113P. Petr1.53117121192WOct 10 · 06:30P. Potmesil1.401151151J. Koch2.7531113113WSep 25 · 09:03J. Pantak1.2810250J. Koch3.501211113LSep 25 · 08:00J. Koch3.50111198112J. Pantak1.28291111133LSep 25 · 07:30V. Kubat1.4091111113J. Koch2.75118671LSep 25 · 06:00J. Koch2.2081111592P. Petr1.61118911113LSep 17 · 13:28J. Strnad1.289101111113J. Koch3.5011124862WSep 17 · 12:00J. Koch3.2511118113V. Kubat1.33871181WSep 17 · 11:30J. Stary2.756117101J. Koch1.4011911123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.