TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Kubat vs Jaroslav Strnad 1961 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411811116911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1961 to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Jaroslav Strnad 1961 @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingVladimir Kubat above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1961 at 54.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Kubat 43–54 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Vladimir Kubat has won 43 of their 97 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:2954.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
43-54 in 97
Strnad
Correct
gap of 11 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 1033 vs Strnad 1044
Strnad
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 40% vs Strnad 60%
Strnad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 60% vs Strnad 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat -2 · Strnad +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Strnad) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 2.00 / Strnad 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strnad)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248541
Kubat2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 18 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back32% 8 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Strnad1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 23 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubat3wins
AwayStrnad7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubat50%3 of 6
AwayStrnad100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat6Strnad4n = 10Kubat took 6 of 10
S2Kubat1Strnad9n = 10Strnad took 9 of 10
S3Kubat5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S4Kubat5Strnad4n = 9Kubat took 5 of 9
S5Kubat1Strnad3n = 4Strnad took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubatStrnadK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.440.0−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 255 vs 137 / 33140.8%41.4%104 / 255 vs 137 / 331Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.335.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadKubat 2.00/Strnad 1.73
Hit
What we said
54.1%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jaroslav Strnad 1961 @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
1–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 11:00V. Kubat3911116113J. Strnad36791191
LAug 27 · 08:30V. Kubat4111811292J. Strnad48611911113
LAug 24 · 10:00V. Kubat361271341J. Strnad47101115113
LAug 18 · 08:00V. Kubat336411121J. Strnad4311117143
LAug 12 · 08:58V. Kubat48107121182J. Strnad481211104113
LAug 12 · 06:00V. Kubat26115551J. Strnad3741111113
LAug 10 · 06:00V. Kubat3352111142J. Strnad46111158113
WJul 21 · 09:00V. Kubat3911611113J. Strnad25211841
WJul 21 · 07:00V. Kubat46116711113J. Strnad3641111912
LJun 15 · 06:00V. Kubat2351080J. Strnad341112113
V. Kubat10
LOct 6 · 13:01C. Havrda1.83911811113V. Kubat1.8311911382LOct 6 · 11:00V. Kubat1.448990P. Potmesil2.631111113LOct 6 · 10:00C. Havrda1.50111011123V. Kubat2.508123101WSep 25 · 09:30P. Petr1.53119691V. Kubat2.3831111113LSep 25 · 08:30P. Petr1.8091111113V. Kubat1.91117751WSep 25 · 07:30V. Kubat1.4091111113J. Koch2.75118671WSep 25 · 06:30J. Pantak1.2561161192V. Kubat3.75119117113WSep 17 · 12:59V. Kubat1.50131111113J. Stary2.50159471LSep 17 · 12:00J. Koch3.2511118113V. Kubat1.33871181WSep 17 · 11:00J. Strnad1.57791191V. Kubat2.2511116113
J. Strnad10
WOct 6 · 13:30J. Strnad1.7311118113P. Potmesil2.00881151WOct 6 · 11:30J. Strnad2.381111113C. Havrda1.535980WOct 6 · 10:30P. Potmesil2.1021271262J. Strnad1.6711101110113LOct 4 · 08:59J. Hyrsl1.221111113J. Strnad4.006880WOct 4 · 08:30J. Strnad2.001111113D. Cupec1.735950LOct 4 · 07:00J. Strnad2.755750M. Vrabec1.401111113LOct 4 · 06:00J. Hyrsl1.2811411113J. Strnad3.50711771WOct 3 · 09:02J. Strnad1.441111113P. Serak2.637890LOct 3 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.101111133J. Strnad1.6767110LSep 17 · 11:00J. Strnad1.57791191V. Kubat2.2511116113
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