Serhii Kiilo vs Serhii Balabei 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Serhii Kiilo

Home

4.50

At publish

Lost last 7

Form at publish

1–9Last 10Lost last 7

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1197111012811––

Serhii Balabei

Away

1.17

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched: 85.6% is still 85.6%

Graded at full time

Serhii Balabei to win

85.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingSerhii Kiilo above · Serhii Balabei below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 10-12

Set 4 · 8-11

Point 79 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Serhii Balabei at 85.6%

79 points played in total.

H2H Serhii Kiilo 8–73 Serhii Balabei Serhii Kiilo has won 8 of their 81 meetings.

Last 10 · 1–9Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Balabei

Kiilo 4.50/Balabei 1.17

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

85.6%

Balabei · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Balabei won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 13:55

85.6%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166

short by 0.2pp

85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.17 (79%)

Balabei

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

8-73 in 81

Balabei

Correct

gap of 65 in 81, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kiilo 1666 vs Balabei 1954

Balabei

Correct

both rated, 289 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kiilo 0% vs Balabei 60%

Balabei

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kiilo 10% vs Balabei 50%

Balabei

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kiilo -7 · Balabei +3

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 86% · Strong (leans Balabei) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Balabei: form 60%, the price implies 86%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKiilo 4.50 / Balabei 1.166

Signal prob.14% / 86%

Edge (Balabei)-0.2pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKiilo1wins

AwayBalabei9wins

2 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKiilo33.3%1 of 3

AwayBalabei100%7 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kiilo3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10

S2Kiilo1Balabei9n = 10Balabei took 9 of 10

S3Kiilo5Balabei5n = 10split evenly

S4Kiilo2Balabei5n = 7Balabei took 5 of 7

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away440%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricKiiloBalabeiK − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.240.2−5.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKiiloBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 360 vs 514 / 99226.1%51.8%94 / 360 vs 514 / 992Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.236.9per match

Setka Cup · #13281567

Kiilo4.50

10%won 1 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 7

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog20% won 30 of 152

Down 0–1, comes back13% 15 of 113

Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 70

Balabei1.17

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite70% won 189 of 271

Up 2–0, closes it96% 95 of 99

Up 1–0, closes it84% 137 of 163

Serhii Kiilo vs Serhii Balabei 1-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Serhii Kiilo vs Serhii Balabei 1-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.