TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Balabei vs Vadim Komar 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119411711115911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Vadim Komar below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Serhii Balabei at 58.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 83–78 Vadim Komar Vadim Komar has won 78 of their 161 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5758.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Balabei
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
83-78 in 161
Balabei
Wrong
gap of 5 in 161, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 1941 vs Komar 1861
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 40% vs Komar 60%
Komar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 40% vs Komar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei -1 · Komar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Balabei) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.615 / Komar 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Balabei)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266160
Balabei1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 192 of 272
Up 2–0, closes it96% 95 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it85% 138 of 163
Komar2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back26% 25 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei6wins
AwayKomar4wins
9 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 9 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei62.5%5 of 8
AwayKomarn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei8Komar2n = 10Balabei took 8 of 10
S2Balabei3Komar7n = 10Komar took 7 of 10
S3Balabei5Komar5n = 10split evenly
S4Balabei5Komar4n = 9Balabei took 5 of 9
S5Balabei5Komar4n = 9Balabei took 5 of 9
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiKomarB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match45.945.4+0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiKomarBasisWin rate · lifetime513 / 996 vs 236 / 61051.5%38.7%513 / 996 vs 236 / 610Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiBalabei 1.61/Komar 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Komar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 14:00S. Balabei4311612772V. Komar518111011113
LSep 23 · 12:30S. Balabei42121051142V. Komar521012118113
WSep 22 · 16:00S. Balabei451121011113V. Komar4141112682
WSep 18 · 15:00S. Balabei53913137113V. Komar501111111162
WSep 11 · 17:02S. Balabei541112411163V. Komar51314119142
LSep 11 · 16:00S. Balabei42811211102V. Komar48118116123
WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei48116145123V. Komar484111211102
LAug 28 · 14:00S. Balabei45119101142V. Komar44111129113
WAug 26 · 09:00S. Balabei541361111133V. Komar541111813112
WAug 25 · 15:00S. Balabei331111113V. Komar158160
S. Balabei10
LOct 9 · 13:30S. Balabei1.5011116121D. Kryshtal2.5013711143WOct 9 · 12:00S. Balabei1.361111108113S. Kushnirenko3.0038121142LOct 7 · 16:59R. Horokh1.8071113113S. Balabei1.911181141LOct 7 · 16:00S. Balabei3.0098100R. Horokh1.361111123WOct 7 · 15:00D. Kryshtal2.5010980S. Balabei1.501211113LOct 7 · 14:00V. Komar2.208111011113S. Balabei1.6111612772WOct 7 · 12:30D. Yurkov2.6311118101S. Balabei1.4461311123LOct 6 · 17:34S. Balabei2.109111191R. Horokh1.6711513113WOct 6 · 16:00S. Balabei1.1771811113S. Kiilo4.501116891LOct 6 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111123S. Balabei2.0024100
V. Komar10
WOct 9 · 14:00I. Shyndel1.53811114102V. Komar2.38118711123LOct 9 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.5311117113V. Komar2.38961191WOct 8 · 10:33D. Kryshtal1.618790V. Komar2.201111113WOct 8 · 09:30S. Kiilo3.009111171V. Komar1.3611813113LOct 8 · 08:00V. Komar8.5091150S. Ponomarenko1.051113113LOct 8 · 06:30V. Komar2.7546110R. Horokh1.401111133LOct 8 · 05:00V. Komar2.257980D. Kryshtal1.571111113WOct 7 · 17:28D. Yurkov1.9185140V. Komar1.801111163LOct 7 · 16:30V. Komar2.38861171D. Kryshtal1.5311115113WOct 7 · 14:00V. Komar2.208111011113S. Balabei1.6111612772
Upcoming Matches
S. Balabei
V. Komar
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