TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Yurkov vs Serhii Balabei 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11611138111012––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Yurkov above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 82 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Serhii Balabei at 64.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Yurkov 126–128 Serhii Balabei Dmytro Yurkov has won 126 of their 254 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0964.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
126-128 in 254
Balabei
Correct
gap of 2 in 254, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yurkov 1795 vs Balabei 1968
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yurkov 40% vs Balabei 60%
Balabei
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yurkov 20% vs Balabei 70%
Balabei
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yurkov -3 · Balabei -1
Yurkov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Balabei) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYurkov 2.625 / Balabei 1.444
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Balabei)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256119
Yurkov2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 03)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 50 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back12% 13 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 67
Balabei1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 190 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it96% 94 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it85% 137 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYurkov1wins
AwayBalabei9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYurkovn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBalabei88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yurkov1Balabei9n = 10Balabei took 9 of 10
S2Yurkov4Balabei6n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S3Yurkov3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S4Yurkov3Balabei3n = 6split evenly
S5Yurkov0Balabei3n = 3Balabei took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricYurkovBalabeiY − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match34.041.0−7.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYurkovBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 908 vs 513 / 99642.2%51.5%383 / 908 vs 513 / 996Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiYurkov 2.63/Balabei 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 12:30D. Yurkov541112121542S. Balabei597141413113
LAug 31 · 15:00D. Yurkov2310670S. Balabei341211113
WAug 18 · 16:30D. Yurkov4051113113S. Balabei371161191
LAug 11 · 12:30D. Yurkov28511571S. Balabei4111811113
LAug 5 · 12:30D. Yurkov2788110S. Balabei351111133
LJul 25 · 12:30D. Yurkov46611811102S. Balabei46117115123
LJul 23 · 17:13D. Yurkov46911113122S. Balabei49116711143
LJul 23 · 12:30D. Yurkov215970S. Balabei331111113
LJul 20 · 13:30D. Yurkov2391040S. Balabei341112113
LJul 16 · 17:29D. Yurkov32781161S. Balabei4211119113
D. Yurkov10
WOct 7 · 13:30D. Kryshtal1.44101181272D. Yurkov2.631251110113LOct 3 · 10:00D. Yurkov2.633540R. Horokh1.441111113LOct 3 · 09:00D. Yurkov1.91771171V. Komar1.8011119113LOct 3 · 08:30D. Yurkov2.105840D. Kryshtal1.671111113WOct 3 · 07:30D. Kryshtal1.61911101292D. Yurkov2.201161210113WOct 3 · 06:30V. Komar1.8011911592D. Yurkov1.91811811113LOct 3 · 05:00R. Horokh1.5311911113D. Yurkov2.38811491LSep 21 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.20119119113D. Yurkov1.6191131172LSep 21 · 14:30D. Yurkov8.501197111S. Ponomarenko1.0571111133LSep 21 · 13:30R. Horokh1.611111113D. Yurkov2.208970
S. Balabei10
LOct 6 · 17:34S. Balabei2.109111191R. Horokh1.6711513113WOct 6 · 16:00S. Balabei1.1771811113S. Kiilo4.501116891LOct 6 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111123S. Balabei2.0024100WOct 6 · 14:00D. Kryshtal2.3896111192S. Balabei1.53111156113WOct 6 · 12:30M. Levytskii4.50414271S. Balabei1.17111211113WSep 25 · 17:33S. Balabei1.25111011113I. Shyndel3.75212891LSep 25 · 16:00D. Kryshtal2.50119711133S. Balabei1.50511117112WSep 25 · 14:30I. Shyndel1.7311118852S. Balabei2.00991111113WSep 25 · 13:00S. Bului3.4012670S. Balabei1.301411113WSep 25 · 12:00R. Horokh1.7381311582S. Balabei2.001111811113
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