TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Kryshtal vs Dmytro Yurkov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111610121210911
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kryshtal to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Kryshtal above · Dmytro Yurkov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Dmytro Kryshtal at 57.7%
101 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Kryshtal 62–60 Dmytro Yurkov Dmytro Yurkov has won 60 of their 122 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2757.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kryshtal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
62-60 in 122
Kryshtal
Wrong
gap of 2 in 122, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryshtal 1866 vs Yurkov 1829
Kryshtal
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryshtal 60% vs Yurkov 20%
Kryshtal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryshtal 50% vs Yurkov 20%
Kryshtal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryshtal +2 · Yurkov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kryshtal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yurkov form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryshtal 1.615 / Yurkov 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kryshtal)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234433
Kryshtal1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 153 of 257
Up 2–0, closes it93% 81 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it76% 119 of 157
Yurkov2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 49 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryshtal6wins
AwayYurkov4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKryshtal leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryshtal100%5 of 5
AwayYurkov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryshtal5Yurkov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kryshtal10Yurkov0n = 10Kryshtal took 10 of 10
S3Kryshtal7Yurkov3n = 10Kryshtal took 7 of 10
S4Kryshtal3Yurkov3n = 6split evenly
S5Kryshtal0Yurkov3n = 3Yurkov took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryshtalYurkovK − YBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.734.5+5.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryshtalYurkovBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 801 vs 383 / 90543.3%42.3%347 / 801 vs 383 / 905Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.334.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KryshtalKryshtal 1.61/Yurkov 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kryshtal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Yurkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 07:30D. Kryshtal51911101292D. Yurkov501161210113
WAug 31 · 14:00D. Kryshtal331111113D. Yurkov188460
WAug 18 · 17:28D. Kryshtal331111113D. Yurkov206860
LAug 18 · 14:00D. Kryshtal4141111692D. Yurkov43113711113
LAug 11 · 17:29D. Kryshtal4191111101D. Yurkov4511913123
WAug 11 · 15:30D. Kryshtal4291111113D. Yurkov34118781
WAug 5 · 15:30D. Kryshtal351112123D. Yurkov26610100
WJul 27 · 15:30D. Kryshtal391311153D. Yurkov28114130
LJul 23 · 14:00D. Kryshtal4391211472D. Yurkov511110811113
WJul 21 · 16:30D. Kryshtal3911116113D. Yurkov30731191
D. Kryshtal10
WOct 3 · 08:30D. Yurkov2.105840D. Kryshtal1.671111113WOct 3 · 06:00R. Horokh1.5361111542D. Kryshtal2.38119611113WOct 3 · 05:30V. Komar2.38118691D. Kryshtal1.5381111113LSep 30 · 09:30V. Komar2.501151112113D. Kryshtal1.5051191472LSep 30 · 08:00D. Kryshtal1.25111111742S. Kiilo3.75136711113WSep 30 · 06:30D. Kryshtal1.7311118113I. Shyndel2.00661171LSep 30 · 05:00D. Kryshtal2.501161651R. Horokh1.50131114113LSep 29 · 17:03R. Horokh1.50115117113D. Kryshtal2.5071191142WSep 29 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.731111113M. Levytskii2.006540LSep 29 · 14:00D. Kryshtal2.50611661R. Horokh1.5011511113
D. Yurkov10
LOct 3 · 08:30D. Yurkov2.105840D. Kryshtal1.671111113WOct 3 · 06:30V. Komar1.8011911592D. Yurkov1.91811811113LOct 3 · 05:00R. Horokh1.5311911113D. Yurkov2.38811491LSep 21 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.20119119113D. Yurkov1.6191131172LSep 21 · 14:30D. Yurkov8.501197111S. Ponomarenko1.0571111133LSep 21 · 13:30R. Horokh1.611111113D. Yurkov2.208970LSep 21 · 12:30D. Yurkov2.381112121542S. Balabei1.537141413113LAug 31 · 16:00D. Yurkov2.2061160R. Horokh1.611113113LAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.108460
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