TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Kryshtal vs Roman Horokh 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11136111614511––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:56 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Kryshtal above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 87 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Roman Horokh at 63.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Kryshtal 65–97 Roman Horokh Dmytro Kryshtal has won 65 of their 162 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 12h before this match
Horokh beat Kryshtal 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5663.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
65-97 in 162
Horokh
Correct
gap of 32 in 162, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryshtal 1878 vs Horokh 1962
Horokh
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryshtal 40% vs Horokh 100%
Horokh
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryshtal 50% vs Horokh 80%
Horokh
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryshtal -1 · Horokh +7
Horokh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Horokh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryshtal 2.50 / Horokh 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Horokh)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218355
Kryshtal2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 73 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back10% 17 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 123
Horokh1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 296 of 438
Up 2–0, closes it97% 156 of 161
Up 1–0, closes it84% 226 of 270
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryshtal4wins
AwayHorokh6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHorokh leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryshtal50%2 of 4
AwayHorokh66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryshtal4Horokh6n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S2Kryshtal4Horokh6n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S3Kryshtal6Horokh4n = 10Kryshtal took 6 of 10
S4Kryshtal4Horokh6n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S5Kryshtal2Horokh2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryshtalHorokhK − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.142.5−2.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryshtalHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 794 vs 689 / 122243.3%56.4%344 / 794 vs 689 / 1222Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhKryshtal 2.50/Horokh 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 17:09D. Kryshtal48121171172R. Horokh48149113113
LSep 25 · 15:00D. Kryshtal321111371R. Horokh4381311113
LSep 23 · 12:00D. Kryshtal304111051R. Horokh4211812113
WSep 22 · 13:30D. Kryshtal45111211113R. Horokh36914761
WSep 16 · 16:59D. Kryshtal4011513113R. Horokh335111161
WSep 16 · 13:30D. Kryshtal48911116113R. Horokh4511791172
LSep 15 · 13:30D. Kryshtal4749141192R. Horokh491111124113
LSep 12 · 06:30D. Kryshtal32117861R. Horokh3851111113
WSep 11 · 13:30D. Kryshtal40511112113R. Horokh4411771182
LSep 9 · 13:30D. Kryshtal39971671R. Horokh47111114113
D. Kryshtal10
WSep 30 · 06:30D. Kryshtal1.7311118113I. Shyndel2.00661171LSep 29 · 17:03R. Horokh1.50115117113D. Kryshtal2.5071191142WSep 29 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.731111113M. Levytskii2.006540LSep 29 · 14:00D. Kryshtal2.50611661R. Horokh1.5011511113WSep 29 · 13:00D. Kryshtal1.831111113I. Shyndel1.838840LSep 26 · 10:00D. Kryshtal8.004850S. Ponomarenko1.061111113LSep 26 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko1.061111113D. Kryshtal8.009890WSep 26 · 07:30I. Shyndel1.8310119111D. Kryshtal1.8312911133WSep 26 · 06:00V. Komar2.50771111D. Kryshtal1.5011116113WSep 26 · 05:00S. Bului3.505630D. Kryshtal1.281111113
R. Horokh10
LSep 30 · 06:00V. Komar2.501111113R. Horokh1.504850WSep 29 · 17:03R. Horokh1.50115117113D. Kryshtal2.5071191142WSep 29 · 16:00R. Horokh1.73711711113I. Shyndel2.0011611482WSep 29 · 14:00D. Kryshtal2.50611661R. Horokh1.5011511113WSep 29 · 12:30M. Levytskii5.50811571R. Horokh1.1311711113WSep 25 · 17:09D. Kryshtal2.50121171172R. Horokh1.50149113113WSep 25 · 16:30S. Bului3.75183621R. Horokh1.25161111113WSep 25 · 15:00R. Horokh1.5081311113D. Kryshtal2.501111371LSep 25 · 13:30R. Horokh1.809550I. Shyndel1.911111113LSep 25 · 12:00R. Horokh1.7381311582S. Balabei2.001111811113
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