TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vadim Komar vs Dmytro Kryshtal 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1155111191214117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kryshtal to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVadim Komar above · Dmytro Kryshtal below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Dmytro Kryshtal at 63.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Komar 31–45 Dmytro Kryshtal Vadim Komar has won 31 of their 76 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2363.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kryshtal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
31-45 in 76
Kryshtal
Wrong
gap of 14 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Komar 1832 vs Kryshtal 1865
Kryshtal
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Komar 80% vs Kryshtal 40%
Komar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Komar 40% vs Kryshtal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Komar -1 · Kryshtal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kryshtal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryshtal form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKomar 2.50 / Kryshtal 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kryshtal)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218458
Komar2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 60 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Kryshtal1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 153 of 256
Up 2–0, closes it93% 81 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 119 of 158
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKomar4wins
AwayKryshtal6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKryshtal leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKomarn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKryshtal60%6 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Komar0Kryshtal10n = 10Kryshtal took 10 of 10
S2Komar5Kryshtal5n = 10split evenly
S3Komar3Kryshtal7n = 10Kryshtal took 7 of 10
S4Komar4Kryshtal2n = 6Komar took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKomarKryshtalKomar − KryshtalBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match30.738.1−7.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKomarKryshtalBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 599 vs 345 / 79738.7%43.3%232 / 599 vs 345 / 797Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KryshtalKomar 2.50/Kryshtal 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Kryshtal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Komar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 06:00V. Komar26771111D. Kryshtal3911116113
LSep 23 · 16:00V. Komar347116101D. Kryshtal4311911123
LSep 22 · 12:30V. Komar215880D. Kryshtal331111113
LSep 19 · 05:00V. Komar185760D. Kryshtal331111113
WSep 18 · 12:30V. Komar4061112113D. Kryshtal361171081
LSep 12 · 05:00V. Komar165650D. Kryshtal331111113
WSep 11 · 12:30V. Komar4291111113D. Kryshtal37119891
LSep 9 · 16:58V. Komar154740D. Kryshtal331111113
WSep 9 · 12:30V. Komar43511511113D. Kryshtal4511811692
WSep 8 · 12:30V. Komar521013612113D. Kryshtal491211111052
V. Komar10
LSep 30 · 08:30V. Komar2.63119156102I. Shyndel1.443111311123WSep 30 · 07:00V. Komar1.3311911113S. Kiilo3.25511731WSep 30 · 06:00V. Komar2.501111113R. Horokh1.504850WSep 26 · 10:28I. Shyndel1.408340V. Komar2.751111113WSep 26 · 09:30V. Komar1.40111011113S. Bului2.75412771LSep 26 · 08:30V. Komar2.757111151I. Shyndel1.4011913113LSep 26 · 07:00V. Komar8.507880S. Ponomarenko1.051111113LSep 26 · 06:00V. Komar2.50771111D. Kryshtal1.5011116113LSep 23 · 16:00V. Komar2.507116101D. Kryshtal1.5011911123LSep 23 · 15:00R. Horokh1.4011111111113V. Komar2.7551313982
D. Kryshtal10
LSep 30 · 08:00D. Kryshtal1.25111111742S. Kiilo3.75136711113WSep 30 · 06:30D. Kryshtal1.7311118113I. Shyndel2.00661171LSep 30 · 05:00D. Kryshtal2.501161651R. Horokh1.50131114113LSep 29 · 17:03R. Horokh1.50115117113D. Kryshtal2.5071191142WSep 29 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.731111113M. Levytskii2.006540LSep 29 · 14:00D. Kryshtal2.50611661R. Horokh1.5011511113WSep 29 · 13:00D. Kryshtal1.831111113I. Shyndel1.838840LSep 26 · 10:00D. Kryshtal8.004850S. Ponomarenko1.061111113WSep 26 · 06:00V. Komar2.50771111D. Kryshtal1.5011116113WSep 23 · 16:00V. Komar2.507116101D. Kryshtal1.5011911123
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