TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Kryshtal vs Serhii Balabei 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:58 and never touched: 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Kryshtal above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 61 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Serhii Balabei at 66.5%
61 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Kryshtal 44–86 Serhii Balabei Dmytro Kryshtal has won 44 of their 130 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5866.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 0.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
44-86 in 130
Balabei
Correct
gap of 42 in 130, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryshtal 1843 vs Balabei 1961
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryshtal 40% vs Balabei 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryshtal 40% vs Balabei 60%
Balabei
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryshtal -2 · Balabei -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Balabei) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryshtal 2.50 / Balabei 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Balabei)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13255786
Kryshtal2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 70 of 259
Down 0–1, comes back10% 17 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 116
Balabei1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 190 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it96% 94 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it85% 137 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryshtal3wins
AwayBalabei7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryshtal66.7%2 of 3
AwayBalabei85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryshtal3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S2Kryshtal2Balabei8n = 10Balabei took 8 of 10
S3Kryshtal5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S4Kryshtal4Balabei4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryshtalBalabeiK − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.337.9−1.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryshtalBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 811 vs 514 / 99843.3%51.5%351 / 811 vs 514 / 998Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiKryshtal 2.50/Balabei 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 16:00D. Kryshtal51119711133S. Balabei45511117112
LSep 23 · 14:30D. Kryshtal36891181S. Balabei4111118113
LSep 22 · 16:59D. Kryshtal4110101381S. Balabei46121211113
LSep 22 · 14:30D. Kryshtal45811111142S. Balabei42111343113
WSep 18 · 13:30D. Kryshtal3521111113S. Balabei32117771
LSep 16 · 12:30D. Kryshtal311173101S. Balabei4061111123
LSep 15 · 17:01D. Kryshtal2881190S. Balabei351113113
WSep 15 · 12:30D. Kryshtal3911116113S. Balabei24431161
LSep 11 · 14:30D. Kryshtal29491151S. Balabei3711114113
LAug 31 · 17:43D. Kryshtal2896130S. Balabei371111153
D. Kryshtal10
LOct 7 · 13:30D. Kryshtal1.44101181272D. Yurkov2.631251110113LOct 7 · 12:00D. Kryshtal2.2548151172R. Horokh1.571111136113WOct 6 · 17:26S. Kiilo2.6311118492D. Kryshtal1.44991111113LOct 6 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.50913861R. Horokh1.50111111113WOct 6 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.361111113M. Levytskii3.004470LOct 6 · 14:00D. Kryshtal2.3896111192S. Balabei1.53111156113WOct 6 · 13:00D. Kryshtal1.2511117113S. Kiilo3.75671181LOct 3 · 10:30D. Kryshtal1.535611111V. Komar2.3811117133LOct 3 · 09:30D. Kryshtal2.63128111172R. Horokh1.44141191113WOct 3 · 08:30D. Yurkov2.105840D. Kryshtal1.671111113
S. Balabei10
LOct 7 · 16:00S. Balabei3.0098100R. Horokh1.361111123LOct 7 · 14:00V. Komar2.208111011113S. Balabei1.6111612772WOct 7 · 12:30D. Yurkov2.6311118101S. Balabei1.4461311123LOct 6 · 17:34S. Balabei2.109111191R. Horokh1.6711513113WOct 6 · 16:00S. Balabei1.1771811113S. Kiilo4.501116891LOct 6 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111123S. Balabei2.0024100WOct 6 · 14:00D. Kryshtal2.3896111192S. Balabei1.53111156113WOct 6 · 12:30M. Levytskii4.50414271S. Balabei1.17111211113WSep 25 · 17:33S. Balabei1.25111011113I. Shyndel3.75212891LSep 25 · 16:00D. Kryshtal2.50119711133S. Balabei1.50511117112
Upcoming Matches
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S. Balabei
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