TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Kiilo vs Vadim Komar 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111181113711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeVadim Komar to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kiilo above · Vadim Komar below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 81 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Vadim Komar at 73.2%
81 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kiilo 12–42 Vadim Komar Serhii Kiilo has won 12 of their 54 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2973.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Komar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-42 in 54
Komar
Correct
gap of 30 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kiilo 1676 vs Komar 1841
Komar
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kiilo 0% vs Komar 20%
Komar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kiilo 10% vs Komar 50%
Komar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kiilo -5 · Komar -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Komar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komar form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKiilo 3.00 / Komar 1.363
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Komar)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13261462
Kiilo3.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back13% 15 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 73
Komar1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 41 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it71% 30 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKiilo5wins
AwayKomar5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKiilo66.7%2 of 3
AwayKomar57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kiilo3Komar7n = 10Komar took 7 of 10
S2Kiilo6Komar4n = 10Kiilo took 6 of 10
S3Kiilo6Komar4n = 10Kiilo took 6 of 10
S4Kiilo4Komar5n = 9Komar took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKiiloKomarKiilo − KomarBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.439.3−1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKiiloKomarBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 366 vs 233 / 60625.7%38.5%94 / 366 vs 233 / 606Avg sets wonper match1.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match34.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KomarKiilo 3.00/Komar 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Komar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Komar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 30 · 07:00S. Kiilo26511731V. Komar4211911113
WSep 8 · 15:00S. Kiilo48611118123V. Komar47116911102
WAug 19 · 14:00S. Kiilo3731211113V. Komar361110961
WAug 8 · 14:00S. Kiilo4111811113V. Komar30611761
LAug 3 · 16:00S. Kiilo325111151V. Komar4411913113
WJul 30 · 15:30S. Kiilo589111413113V. Komar54117161192
LJun 2 · 06:30S. Kiilo32981141V. Komar3811115113
LMay 16 · 17:14S. Kiilo29461181V. Komar3911116113
WMar 2 · 08:30S. Kiilo341211113V. Komar2410860
S. Kiilo10
LOct 8 · 08:30S. Kiilo5.00781391R. Horokh1.14111111113LOct 8 · 07:00S. Kiilo10.50116561S. Ponomarenko1.0251111113LOct 8 · 06:00S. Kiilo3.758101281D. Kryshtal1.25111210113LOct 6 · 17:26S. Kiilo2.6311118492D. Kryshtal1.44991111113LOct 6 · 16:00S. Balabei1.1771811113S. Kiilo4.501116891WOct 6 · 14:30M. Levytskii2.5068100S. Kiilo1.501111123LOct 6 · 13:00D. Kryshtal1.2511117113S. Kiilo3.75671181LOct 6 · 12:00R. Horokh1.141111135113S. Kiilo5.0056151162LSep 30 · 10:08S. Kiilo4.50711941I. Shyndel1.1711611113LSep 30 · 09:00S. Kiilo5.003650R. Horokh1.141111113
V. Komar10
LOct 8 · 08:00V. Komar8.5091150S. Ponomarenko1.051113113LOct 8 · 06:30V. Komar2.7546110R. Horokh1.401111133LOct 8 · 05:00V. Komar2.257980D. Kryshtal1.571111113WOct 7 · 17:28D. Yurkov1.9185140V. Komar1.801111163LOct 7 · 16:30V. Komar2.38861171D. Kryshtal1.5311115113LOct 7 · 15:30V. Komar1.571112881D. Yurkov2.2561411113WOct 7 · 14:00V. Komar2.208111011113S. Balabei1.6111612772WOct 7 · 13:00V. Komar2.63415712123R. Horokh1.4411131110102WOct 3 · 10:30D. Kryshtal1.535611111V. Komar2.3811117133WOct 3 · 09:00D. Yurkov1.91771171V. Komar1.8011119113
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