TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Horokh vs Serhii Kiilo 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151161315511116
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched: 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Horokh above · Serhii Kiilo below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Roman Horokh at 86.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Roman Horokh 92–9 Serhii Kiilo Serhii Kiilo has won 9 of their 101 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5486.8%Our read87.6%to break even at 1.142
short by 0.8pp87.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.142 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
92-9 in 101
Horokh
Correct
gap of 83 in 101, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horokh 1958 vs Kiilo 1701
Horokh
Correct
both rated, 257 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horokh 60% vs Kiilo 20%
Horokh
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horokh 60% vs Kiilo 20%
Horokh
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horokh +2 · Kiilo -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% · Strong (leans Horokh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (60%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorokh 1.142 / Kiilo 5.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Horokh)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13250951
Horokh1.14
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 03)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 290 of 434
Up 2–0, closes it97% 156 of 161
Up 1–0, closes it84% 226 of 270
Kiilo5.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back13% 15 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorokh10wins
AwayKiilo0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHorokh leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorokh100%8 of 8
AwayKiilon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horokh8Kiilo2n = 10Horokh took 8 of 10
S2Horokh7Kiilo3n = 10Horokh took 7 of 10
S3Horokh8Kiilo2n = 10Horokh took 8 of 10
S4Horokh4Kiilo2n = 6Horokh took 4 of 6
S5Horokh3Kiilo0n = 3Horokh took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorokhKiiloH − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.131.0+10.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorokhKiiloBasisWin rate · lifetime693 / 1228 vs 93 / 35856.4%26%693 / 1228 vs 93 / 358Avg sets wonper match2.11.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.334.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhHorokh 1.14/Kiilo 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 09:00R. Horokh331111113S. Kiilo143650
WSep 16 · 12:00R. Horokh331111113S. Kiilo174760
WSep 14 · 12:00R. Horokh4111811113S. Kiilo28611651
WSep 8 · 12:00R. Horokh50911118113S. Kiilo4311961162
WSep 2 · 12:00R. Horokh52167711113S. Kiilo50141111952
WAug 19 · 16:00R. Horokh341112113S. Kiilo2351080
WAug 11 · 12:00R. Horokh43111110113S. Kiilo30281281
WJul 30 · 16:58R. Horokh4361111153S. Kiilo351147131
WJul 30 · 14:30R. Horokh49115129123S. Kiilo508111011102
WJul 24 · 07:30R. Horokh331111113S. Kiilo205690
R. Horokh10
WOct 3 · 10:00D. Yurkov2.633540R. Horokh1.441111113WOct 3 · 09:30D. Kryshtal2.63128111172R. Horokh1.44141191113LOct 3 · 08:00V. Komar2.75116616113R. Horokh1.40811111492WOct 3 · 07:00R. Horokh1.401113123V. Komar2.75711100LOct 3 · 06:00R. Horokh1.5361111542D. Kryshtal2.38119611113WOct 3 · 05:00R. Horokh1.5311911113D. Yurkov2.38811491LSep 30 · 10:38R. Horokh1.40611119122V. Komar2.75114411143WSep 30 · 09:00S. Kiilo5.003650R. Horokh1.141111113WSep 30 · 07:30I. Shyndel2.0011108111R. Horokh1.7341211133LSep 30 · 06:00V. Komar2.501111113R. Horokh1.504850
S. Kiilo10
LOct 6 · 13:00D. Kryshtal1.2511117113S. Kiilo3.75671181LSep 30 · 10:08S. Kiilo4.50711941I. Shyndel1.1711611113LSep 30 · 09:00S. Kiilo5.003650R. Horokh1.141111113WSep 30 · 08:00D. Kryshtal1.25111111742S. Kiilo3.75136711113LSep 30 · 07:00V. Komar1.3311911113S. Kiilo3.25511731LSep 30 · 05:30I. Shyndel1.201113113S. Kiilo4.3351150LSep 16 · 16:00S. Balabei1.1711112113S. Kiilo4.50551191WSep 16 · 14:30D. Kryshtal1.251415591S. Kiilo3.75161311113LSep 16 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko1.3311129143S. Kiilo3.2591011121LSep 16 · 12:00R. Horokh1.141111113S. Kiilo5.004760
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.