TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Horokh vs Vadim Komar 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11713111210––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched: 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Horokh above · Vadim Komar below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 64 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Roman Horokh at 68.3%
64 points played in total.
H2H Roman Horokh 160–79 Vadim Komar Vadim Komar has won 79 of their 239 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5868.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
160-79 in 239
Horokh
Correct
gap of 81 in 239, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horokh 1955 vs Komar 1824
Horokh
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horokh 60% vs Komar 40%
Horokh
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horokh 70% vs Komar 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horokh -1 · Komar -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Horokh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorokh 1.40 / Komar 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Horokh)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234570
Horokh1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 295 of 437
Up 2–0, closes it97% 156 of 161
Up 1–0, closes it84% 226 of 270
Komar2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog43% won 63 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorokh6wins
AwayKomar4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHorokh leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorokh75%3 of 4
AwayKomar50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horokh4Komar6n = 10Komar took 6 of 10
S2Horokh6Komar4n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S3Horokh5Komar5n = 10split evenly
S4Horokh5Komar3n = 8Horokh took 5 of 8
S5Horokh2Komar1n = 3Horokh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorokhKomarH − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.338.5+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorokhKomarBasisWin rate · lifetime691 / 1225 vs 229 / 59956.4%38.2%691 / 1225 vs 229 / 599Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhHorokh 1.40/Komar 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 07:00R. Horokh361113123V. Komar28711100
LSep 30 · 10:38R. Horokh49611119122V. Komar44114411143
LSep 30 · 06:00R. Horokh174850V. Komar331111113
WSep 23 · 15:00R. Horokh5511111111113V. Komar4851313982
LSep 22 · 15:00R. Horokh28119531V. Komar3851111113
WSep 12 · 07:30R. Horokh43101111113V. Komar30127831
LSep 11 · 15:00R. Horokh3912116101V. Komar4614911123
WSep 9 · 15:00R. Horokh49791111113V. Komar4311117772
WSep 8 · 16:00R. Horokh44111111113V. Komar35138771
WAug 29 · 06:30R. Horokh4311115163V. Komar409611141
R. Horokh10
LOct 3 · 06:00R. Horokh1.5361111542D. Kryshtal2.38119611113WOct 3 · 05:00R. Horokh1.5311911113D. Yurkov2.38811491LSep 30 · 10:38R. Horokh1.40611119122V. Komar2.75114411143WSep 30 · 09:00S. Kiilo5.003650R. Horokh1.141111113WSep 30 · 07:30I. Shyndel2.0011108111R. Horokh1.7341211133LSep 30 · 06:00V. Komar2.501111113R. Horokh1.504850WSep 30 · 05:00D. Kryshtal2.501161651R. Horokh1.50131114113WSep 29 · 17:03R. Horokh1.50115117113D. Kryshtal2.5071191142WSep 29 · 16:00R. Horokh1.73711711113I. Shyndel2.0011611482WSep 29 · 14:00D. Kryshtal2.50611661R. Horokh1.5011511113
V. Komar10
LOct 3 · 06:30V. Komar1.8011911592D. Yurkov1.91811811113LOct 3 · 05:30V. Komar2.38118691D. Kryshtal1.5381111113WSep 30 · 10:38R. Horokh1.40611119122V. Komar2.75114411143WSep 30 · 09:30V. Komar2.501151112113D. Kryshtal1.5051191472LSep 30 · 08:30V. Komar2.63119156102I. Shyndel1.443111311123WSep 30 · 07:00V. Komar1.3311911113S. Kiilo3.25511731WSep 30 · 06:00V. Komar2.501111113R. Horokh1.504850WSep 26 · 10:28I. Shyndel1.408340V. Komar2.751111113WSep 26 · 09:30V. Komar1.40111011113S. Bului2.75412771LSep 26 · 08:30V. Komar2.757111151I. Shyndel1.4011913113
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