TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Kiilo vs Roman Horokh 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7118111311911––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:15 and never touched: 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kiilo above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 81 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Roman Horokh at 86.8%
81 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kiilo 9–93 Roman Horokh Serhii Kiilo has won 9 of their 102 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:1586.8%Our read87.6%to break even at 1.142
short by 0.8pp87.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.142 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-93 in 102
Horokh
Correct
gap of 84 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kiilo 1676 vs Horokh 2051
Horokh
Correct
both rated, 375 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kiilo 20% vs Horokh 100%
Horokh
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kiilo 20% vs Horokh 90%
Horokh
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kiilo -4 · Horokh +6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% · Strong (leans Horokh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKiilo 5.00 / Horokh 1.142
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Horokh)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13261473
Kiilo5.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back13% 15 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 73
Horokh1.14
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 296 of 441
Up 2–0, closes it97% 159 of 164
Up 1–0, closes it84% 231 of 276
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKiilo0wins
AwayHorokh10wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHorokh leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKiilon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHorokh100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kiilo2Horokh8n = 10Horokh took 8 of 10
S2Kiilo3Horokh7n = 10Horokh took 7 of 10
S3Kiilo3Horokh7n = 10Horokh took 7 of 10
S4Kiilo3Horokh4n = 7Horokh took 4 of 7
S5Kiilo0Horokh4n = 4Horokh took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKiiloHorokhK − HBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.342.9−9.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKiiloHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 366 vs 704 / 123725.7%56.9%94 / 366 vs 704 / 1237Avg sets wonper match1.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhKiilo 5.00/Horokh 1.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 12:00S. Kiilo4356151162R. Horokh511111135113
LSep 30 · 09:00S. Kiilo143650R. Horokh331111113
LSep 16 · 12:00S. Kiilo174760R. Horokh331111113
LSep 14 · 12:00S. Kiilo28611651R. Horokh4111811113
LSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo4311961162R. Horokh50911118113
LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo50141111952R. Horokh52167711113
LAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo2351080R. Horokh341112113
LAug 11 · 12:00S. Kiilo30281281R. Horokh43111110113
LJul 30 · 16:58S. Kiilo351147131R. Horokh4361111153
LJul 30 · 14:30S. Kiilo508111011102R. Horokh49115129123
S. Kiilo10
LOct 8 · 07:00S. Kiilo10.50116561S. Ponomarenko1.0251111113LOct 8 · 06:00S. Kiilo3.758101281D. Kryshtal1.25111210113LOct 6 · 17:26S. Kiilo2.6311118492D. Kryshtal1.44991111113LOct 6 · 16:00S. Balabei1.1771811113S. Kiilo4.501116891WOct 6 · 14:30M. Levytskii2.5068100S. Kiilo1.501111123LOct 6 · 13:00D. Kryshtal1.2511117113S. Kiilo3.75671181LOct 6 · 12:00R. Horokh1.141111135113S. Kiilo5.0056151162LSep 30 · 10:08S. Kiilo4.50711941I. Shyndel1.1711611113LSep 30 · 09:00S. Kiilo5.003650R. Horokh1.141111113WSep 30 · 08:00D. Kryshtal1.25111111742S. Kiilo3.75136711113
R. Horokh10
WOct 8 · 07:30R. Horokh1.5011118133D. Kryshtal2.505911111WOct 8 · 06:30V. Komar2.7546110R. Horokh1.401111133WOct 8 · 05:30R. Horokh4.3311511113S. Ponomarenko1.20811871WOct 7 · 16:59R. Horokh1.8071113113S. Balabei1.911181141WOct 7 · 16:00S. Balabei3.0098100R. Horokh1.361111123WOct 7 · 14:30D. Yurkov3.50113531R. Horokh1.2851111113LOct 7 · 13:00V. Komar2.63415712123R. Horokh1.4411131110102WOct 7 · 12:00D. Kryshtal2.2548151172R. Horokh1.571111136113WOct 6 · 12:00R. Horokh1.141111135113S. Kiilo5.0056151162WSep 30 · 09:00S. Kiilo5.003650R. Horokh1.141111113
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