TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vadim Komar vs Roman Horokh 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411151371112101210
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:59 and never touched: 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVadim Komar above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 105 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Roman Horokh at 68.5%
105 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Komar 80–160 Roman Horokh Vadim Komar has won 80 of their 240 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5968.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Horokh
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
80-160 in 240
Horokh
Wrong
gap of 80 in 240, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Komar 1863 vs Horokh 2010
Horokh
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Komar 60% vs Horokh 100%
Horokh
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Komar 60% vs Horokh 90%
Horokh
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Komar +3 · Horokh +8
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Horokh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKomar 2.625 / Horokh 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Horokh)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13255739
Komar2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 03)
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Horokh1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 292 of 436
Up 2–0, closes it97% 157 of 162
Up 1–0, closes it84% 229 of 273
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKomar5wins
AwayHorokh5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKomar57.1%4 of 7
AwayHorokh66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Komar7Horokh3n = 10Komar took 7 of 10
S2Komar4Horokh6n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S3Komar4Horokh6n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S4Komar4Horokh4n = 8split evenly
S5Komar2Horokh2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKomarHorokhK − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.541.3−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKomarHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 602 vs 697 / 122938.5%56.7%232 / 602 vs 697 / 1229Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhKomar 2.63/Horokh 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Komar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 08:00V. Komar50116616113R. Horokh53811111492
LOct 3 · 07:00V. Komar28711100R. Horokh361113123
WSep 30 · 10:38V. Komar44114411143R. Horokh49611119122
WSep 30 · 06:00V. Komar331111113R. Horokh174850
LSep 23 · 15:00V. Komar4851313982R. Horokh5511111111113
WSep 22 · 15:00V. Komar3851111113R. Horokh28119531
LSep 12 · 07:30V. Komar30127831R. Horokh43101111113
WSep 11 · 15:00V. Komar4614911123R. Horokh3912116101
LSep 9 · 15:00V. Komar4311117772R. Horokh49791111113
LSep 8 · 16:00V. Komar35138771R. Horokh44111111113
V. Komar10
WOct 7 · 14:00V. Komar2.208111011113S. Balabei1.6111612772WOct 3 · 10:30D. Kryshtal1.535611111V. Komar2.3811117133WOct 3 · 09:00D. Yurkov1.91771171V. Komar1.8011119113WOct 3 · 08:00V. Komar2.75116616113R. Horokh1.40811111492LOct 3 · 07:00R. Horokh1.401113123V. Komar2.75711100LOct 3 · 06:30V. Komar1.8011911592D. Yurkov1.91811811113LOct 3 · 05:30V. Komar2.38118691D. Kryshtal1.5381111113WSep 30 · 10:38R. Horokh1.40611119122V. Komar2.75114411143WSep 30 · 09:30V. Komar2.501151112113D. Kryshtal1.5051191472LSep 30 · 08:30V. Komar2.63119156102I. Shyndel1.443111311123
R. Horokh10
WOct 7 · 14:30D. Yurkov3.50113531R. Horokh1.2851111113WOct 7 · 12:00D. Kryshtal2.2548151172R. Horokh1.571111136113WOct 6 · 17:34S. Balabei2.109111191R. Horokh1.6711513113WOct 6 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.50913861R. Horokh1.50111111113WOct 6 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111123S. Balabei2.0024100WOct 6 · 13:30R. Horokh1.131111153M. Levytskii5.5037130WOct 6 · 12:00R. Horokh1.141111135113S. Kiilo5.0056151162LOct 3 · 08:00V. Komar2.75116616113R. Horokh1.40811111492WOct 3 · 07:00R. Horokh1.401113123V. Komar2.75711100LSep 30 · 10:38R. Horokh1.40611119122V. Komar2.75114411143
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