Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Maksym Khomenko 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Oleksandr Alieksieev

Home

1.40

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 3

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

7111181412114––

Maksym Khomenko

Away

2.75

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:00 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%

Graded at full time

Oleksandr Alieksieev to win

62.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Alieksieev @ 1.50 · Won

How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Maksym Khomenko below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 14-12

Set 4 · 11-4

Point 78 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 62.9%

78 points played in total.

H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 6–4 Maksym Khomenko Maksym Khomenko has won 4 of their 10 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Alieksieev

Alieksieev 1.40/Khomenko 2.75

Hit

What we said

62.9%

Alieksieev · sealed before the serve

Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Alieksieev @ 1.50 · Won

What happened

3–1

Alieksieev won

The pick

Sealed 10:00

Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Alieksieev @ 1.50 · Won

62.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40

short by 8.5pp

71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)

What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Alieksieev

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

6-4 in 10

Alieksieev

Correct

gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Alieksieev 1688 vs Khomenko 1547

Alieksieev

Correct

both rated, 141 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Alieksieev 40% vs Khomenko 20%

Alieksieev

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Alieksieev 50% vs Khomenko 30%

Alieksieev

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Alieksieev -3 · Khomenko -1

Alieksieev

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

6 for, 0 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.

Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Alieksieev) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Khomenko: form 20%, the price implies 36%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsAlieksieev 1.40 / Khomenko 2.75

Signal prob.63% / 37%

Edge (Alieksieev)-8.5pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeAlieksieev6wins

AwayKhomenko4wins

2 of 10 to a deciderAlieksieev leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeAlieksieev100%6 of 6

AwayKhomenko100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Alieksieev6Khomenko4n = 10Alieksieev took 6 of 10

S2Alieksieev8Khomenko2n = 10Alieksieev took 8 of 10

S3Alieksieev5Khomenko5n = 10split evenly

S4Alieksieev4Khomenko1n = 5Alieksieev took 4 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricAlieksieevKhomenkoA − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.931.3+3.6per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricAlieksieevKhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 200 vs 441 / 83460.5%52.9%121 / 200 vs 441 / 834Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.4per match

Setka Cup · #13281536

Alieksieev1.40

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite71% won 59 of 83

Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34

Up 1–0, closes it92% 46 of 50

Khomenko2.75

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog38% won 61 of 161

Down 0–1, comes back27% 27 of 99

Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 66

Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Maksym Khomenko 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Maksym Khomenko 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.