TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Khomenko vs Yurii Parahailo 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111135111012––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:30 and never touched: 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 70 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Maksym Khomenko at 76.6%
70 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 74–15 Yurii Parahailo Yurii Parahailo has won 15 of their 89 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3076.6%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 1.2pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Khomenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
74-15 in 89
Khomenko
Wrong
gap of 59 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1579 vs Parahailo 1573
Khomenko
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 20% vs Parahailo 40%
Parahailo
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 30% vs Parahailo 60%
Parahailo
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko -4 · Parahailo -1
Khomenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Khomenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 1.285 / Parahailo 3.50
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Khomenko)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276751
Khomenko1.28
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 83 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 51 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it87% 62 of 71
Parahailo3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 64 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko8wins
AwayParahailo2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKhomenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayParahailo25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko6Parahailo4n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S2Khomenko7Parahailo3n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S3Khomenko6Parahailo4n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S4Khomenko7Parahailo1n = 8Khomenko took 7 of 8
S5Khomenko2Parahailo2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoParahailoK − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.333.5+7.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 825 vs 410 / 82053.1%50%438 / 825 vs 410 / 820Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoKhomenko 1.28/Parahailo 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.6%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 20:30M. Khomenko49118711123Y. Parahailo44311119102
LOct 9 · 00:15M. Khomenko4051151182Y. Parahailo46116117113
WOct 5 · 08:35M. Khomenko331111113Y. Parahailo194690
WOct 4 · 18:05M. Khomenko48781111113Y. Parahailo3711116542
WOct 4 · 00:00M. Khomenko3911116113Y. Parahailo28671141
WSep 28 · 10:35M. Khomenko3741111113Y. Parahailo29114681
WSep 27 · 18:35M. Khomenko3811115113Y. Parahailo29281181
WSep 27 · 02:00M. Khomenko4291111113Y. Parahailo28115661
WSep 19 · 20:30M. Khomenko331111113Y. Parahailo249780
LSep 14 · 10:35M. Khomenko541112128112Y. Parahailo513141011133
M. Khomenko10
LOct 11 · 02:00O. Alieksieev1.4412137113M. Khomenko2.6310111141LOct 11 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20712111092D. Shchegelskyi1.611110312113LOct 11 · 00:00M. Khomenko1.50616481O. Storozhenko2.50111411113LOct 10 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.6111126111V. Kovalchuk2.2071411133WOct 10 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.28118711123Y. Parahailo3.50311119102WOct 9 · 02:15V. Kovalchuk1.838131181M. Khomenko1.83111113113LOct 9 · 01:15M. Khomenko2.2515116882D. Shchegelskyi1.571361111113LOct 9 · 00:15M. Khomenko1.2551151182Y. Parahailo3.75116117113WOct 8 · 22:45M. Khomenko1.5711411113Y. Tebenko2.25611571LOct 8 · 20:45M. Khomenko1.3312340O. Storozhenko3.251411113
Y. Parahailo10
WOct 11 · 13:35O. Alieksieev1.367630Y. Parahailo3.001111113LOct 11 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.00611119113Y. Parahailo1.7311581182WOct 11 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.911111113O. Storozhenko1.809560WOct 10 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.756116101Y. Parahailo1.4011711123LOct 10 · 21:30O. Alieksieev1.3611711113Y. Parahailo3.00511981LOct 10 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.28118711123Y. Parahailo3.50311119102WOct 9 · 02:45Y. Tebenko1.83611591Y. Parahailo1.8311611113LOct 9 · 01:45O. Storozhenko1.8391111113Y. Parahailo1.83117971WOct 9 · 00:15M. Khomenko1.2551151182Y. Parahailo3.75116117113WOct 8 · 22:15D. Shchegelskyi2.2010127101Y. Parahailo1.61121011123
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