TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Khomenko vs Oleksandr Storozhenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111614411811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:49 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Maksym Khomenko at 64.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 8–3 Oleksandr Storozhenko Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4964.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Khomenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Khomenko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1608 vs Storozhenko 1611
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 40% vs Storozhenko 60%
Storozhenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 50% vs Storozhenko 70%
Storozhenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko -1 · Storozhenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Khomenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 1.50 / Storozhenko 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Khomenko)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270508
Khomenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 84 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it89% 62 of 70
Storozhenko2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 51 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko7wins
AwayStorozhenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKhomenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayStorozhenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko7Storozhenko3n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S2Khomenko7Storozhenko3n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S3Khomenko7Storozhenko3n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S4Khomenko2Storozhenko1n = 3Khomenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoStorozhenkoK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match32.026.5+5.5per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 822 vs 307 / 58453.3%52.6%438 / 822 vs 307 / 584Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoKhomenko 1.50/Storozhenko 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 20:45M. Khomenko1912340O. Storozhenko361411113
WOct 4 · 16:05M. Khomenko331111113O. Storozhenko228680
WOct 4 · 01:00M. Khomenko331111113O. Storozhenko189450
WSep 28 · 08:35M. Khomenko331111113O. Storozhenko177550
LSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko198470O. Storozhenko331111113
WAug 31 · 09:35M. Khomenko331111113O. Storozhenko219570
LAug 30 · 01:00M. Khomenko3911211962O. Storozhenko44811311113
WAug 24 · 09:35M. Khomenko3811115113O. Storozhenko28391151
WAug 23 · 00:00M. Khomenko331111113O. Storozhenko156720
WMar 28 · 00:45M. Khomenko4071111113O. Storozhenko31117671
M. Khomenko10
LOct 11 · 02:00O. Alieksieev1.4412137113M. Khomenko2.6310111141LOct 11 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20712111092D. Shchegelskyi1.611110312113LOct 10 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.6111126111V. Kovalchuk2.2071411133WOct 10 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.28118711123Y. Parahailo3.50311119102WOct 9 · 02:15V. Kovalchuk1.838131181M. Khomenko1.83111113113LOct 9 · 01:15M. Khomenko2.2515116882D. Shchegelskyi1.571361111113LOct 9 · 00:15M. Khomenko1.2551151182Y. Parahailo3.75116117113WOct 8 · 22:45M. Khomenko1.5711411113Y. Tebenko2.25611571LOct 8 · 20:45M. Khomenko1.3312340O. Storozhenko3.251411113WOct 5 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk1.911161491M. Khomenko1.8061116113
O. Storozhenko10
WOct 11 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.8091161282O. Storozhenko1.911191110113LOct 11 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.911111113O. Storozhenko1.809560WOct 10 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi1.80129721O. Storozhenko1.91101111113LOct 10 · 20:00O. Alieksieev1.331211113O. Storozhenko3.2510760LOct 9 · 03:15D. Shchegelskyi1.9111117113O. Storozhenko1.80961191WOct 9 · 01:45O. Storozhenko1.8391111113Y. Parahailo1.83117971WOct 8 · 23:45Y. Tebenko1.916970O. Storozhenko1.801111113LOct 8 · 21:45V. Kovalchuk1.80101111113O. Storozhenko1.91127681WOct 8 · 20:45M. Khomenko1.3312340O. Storozhenko3.251411113WOct 7 · 10:35O. Storozhenko1.53811611113M. Potapov2.3811611772
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