Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 0-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Oleksandr Alieksieev

Home

1.36

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

711711411––––

Dmytro Shchegelskyi

Away

3.00

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:58 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%

Graded at full time

Oleksandr Alieksieev to win

70.4%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 4-11

Point 51 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 70.4%

51 points played in total.

H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 4–2 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 2 of their 6 meetings.

Last 6 · 4–2Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Alieksieev

Alieksieev 1.36/Shchegelskyi 3.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

70.4%

Alieksieev · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Shchegelskyi won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 05:58

70.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363

short by 3.0pp

73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.36 (69%)

Alieksieev

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

4-2 in 6

Alieksieev

Wrong

gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Alieksieev 1725 vs Shchegelskyi 1666

Alieksieev

Wrong

both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Alieksieev 60% vs Shchegelskyi 80%

Shchegelskyi

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Alieksieev 70% vs Shchegelskyi 70%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Alieksieev +2 · Shchegelskyi +3

Shchegelskyi

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Alieksieev) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Shchegelskyi: form 80%, the price implies 33%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsAlieksieev 1.363 / Shchegelskyi 3.00

Signal prob.70% / 30%

Edge (Alieksieev)-3.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 6 meetings

HomeAlieksieev4wins

AwayShchegelskyi2wins

2 of 6 to a deciderAlieksieev leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeAlieksieev80%4 of 5

AwayShchegelskyin = 1, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Alieksieev5Shchegelskyi1n = 6Alieksieev took 5 of 6

S2Alieksieev4Shchegelskyi2n = 6Alieksieev took 4 of 6

S3Alieksieev3Shchegelskyi3n = 6split evenly

S4Alieksieev1Shchegelskyi2n = 3Shchegelskyi took 2 of 3

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home233%

3–1Four sets, home117%

3–2Decider, home117%

2–3Decider, away117%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away117%

These 6 meetings

MetricAlieksieevShchegelskyiA − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match33.428.6+4.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricAlieksieevShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 198 vs 465 / 90961.1%51.2%121 / 198 vs 465 / 909Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.1per match

Setka Cup · #13281013

Alieksieev1.36

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite71% won 59 of 83

Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34

Up 1–0, closes it92% 46 of 50

Shchegelskyi3.00

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog37% won 67 of 183

Down 0–1, comes back23% 27 of 118

Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 63

Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.